Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Introduction and Overview I have obtained access to weekly prescription trends for Xyosted which I will publish periodically. Marketing began on December 14, 2018 and the data in this report runs through the week ending May 3, 2019. This audit data reports prescriptions as follows: NRx- the number of new prescriptions filled RRx-refilled prescriptions TRx- […]

Overview of 1Q, 2019 Results I was shocked to see Portola trading down about  $5.00 in following the release of 1Q, 2019 results. Almost all of the stock price relates to sales of Andexxa so one would think that the sharp drop was somehow the result of disappointing Andexxa sales. Not so. Consensus Street expectations […]

Key Points: Trial missed achieving statistical significance on primary endpoint of slow vital capacity Still, key opinion leaders when looking at the totality of data are strongly supportive of launching a phase 3 trial Management has not yet issued guidance, but my guess is that the trial could begin in late 2019 and conclude in […]

Business Accelerated Dramatically in 1Q, 2019 Repligen’s stock exploded on Friday April 26, 2019 as it increased $11.65 (up 20%) to $68.89. This was primarily caused by the pre-announcement that the Company expected organic sales growth of 35-37% in the quarter which compares to consistent, past guidance from the Company that it aims to achieve […]

Key Conclusion The outlook for Portola’s stock price in 2019 and 2020 will almost certainly driven by the sales progress of Andexxa. At this early stage in the launch, there is considerable uncertainty and guesswork involved in projecting sales. My preliminary estimates are that sales increase from $24 million in 2019 to $120 million in […]

Introduction On Friday, the PROLONG clinical study was released that showed no difference in outcomes between Makena and placebo. This was a major surprise and disappointment and caused a sharp decline in the stock price of AMAG and to a lesser extent Antares. This note goes over my preliminary thinking on the possible outcome of […]

Quick Comment on 4Q, 2018 Sales and Earnings Report Cryoport reported a spectacular 4Q, 2018 quarter last night. Biopharma revenues which are 84% of total revenues increased 94% to $4.9 million which compared to my estimate of $4.3 million. Total revenues increased 72% to $5.7 million as compared to my estimate of $5.2 million. The […]

Investment Thesis Omecamtiv is one of the Most Exciting Drugs in Development in all of Biopharma The primary driver of the investment thesis on Cytokinetics is the potential use of omecamtiv in the treatment of heart failure. I believe that this drug potentially is a major advance in the treatment of this disease which affects […]

Antares just reported 4Q, 2018 sales and earnings. I will do a more detailed analysis of the Company sometime after the release of the 10-K in mid-March. However, I wanted to make a brief comment about the guidance that the Company provided for 2019 sales growth. Antares now has two wholly owned products marketed with […]

Overview This report focuses narrowly on the New England Journal of Medicine article. If you would like a more thorough discussion on the fundamentals of Portola I suggest that you refer to two recent reports. Key Points Andexxa (andexanet) is the only approved treatment for reversal of anticoagulant effects of Factor Xa inhibitor drugs like […]