Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Introduction I have shut down the subscription service for SmithOnStocks and have refunded subscription fees for those subscribers who paid their annual subscription fee in the period from August 2020 to February 2021. My payments provider, PayPal, didn’t allow for refunds to subscribers who paid in the March 2020 to July 2020 period. Those subscribers […]

Cancer Concerns About bluebird bio’s Gene Therapy Products bluebird bio announced a temporary suspension of two trials of its  LentiGlobin gene therapy for sickle cell disease (SCD) and also the suspension of marketing of a different gene therapy, Zynteglo, in Europe. The reason was a report that a sickle cell patient who was treated more […]

Kymriah Sales Were Strong in 4Q, 2020 Novartis just reported 4Q, 2020  worldwide sales for Kymriah of $141 million. This was an increase of 47% from 4Q, 2019 and a sequential increase of 16% from 3Q, 2020. Novartis commented that sales grew strongly in Europe, US and Japan and that coverage continued to expand, with […]

Overview I wanted to give subscribers a quick overview of the just completed equity offering and the surprising 15% surge in the stock price after the deal was announced. This note is a quick synopsis. I am working on other reports that will include a model for sales and earnings, potential price targets and other […]

The FDA approval of Merck’s new heart failure drug, vericiguat, has meaningful implications for whether it will approve omecamtiv. Vericiguat’s approval meaningfully increases my already strong confidence that the FDA will also approve omecamtiv. The vericiguat trial enrolled 5,050 patients with ejection fractions less than 45. The data underlying its approval is quite similar to […]

Investment Overview Cytokinetics has three highly valuable pipeline assets whose aggregate value in my view substantially exceeds its current market valuation of $1.4 billion: Omecamtiv mecarbil just completed the GALACTIC-HF phase 3 trial in heart failure. The trial met its primary endpoint with a p value of 0.025 and there were no safety issues, but […]

Key Point I think that the stock has the potential to double in 2021. New Revenue Guidance Antares has just issued guidance that 2020 revenues are expected to be in the range of $145 to $150 million which compares to $124 million in 2020. The midpoint of this range represents a 19% increase from 2019. […]

Just after I published my first article today, I received a copy of this article. It suggests that Cryoport dewars might have a much greater role to play in COVID-19 vaccine distribution than I have been thinking. Here is the link.

The market has been manic depressive on assessing the potential commercial benefit of COVID-19 vaccines to Cryoport. The stock ran up to over $60 on the mistaken premise that Pfizer would use Cryoport cryogenics shipping and logistics to support shipments of its vaccine. This premise was wrong because the Pfizer vaccine is shipped at minus […]

Key Points of the GALACIC-HF Trial Cytokinetics declined sharply after it announced topline results in the huge 8,500 patient phase 3 GALACTIC-HF trial of omecamtiv mecarbil in congestive heart failure. The study successfully reached the primary endpoint of time to cardiovascular death or first heart failure event with a p-value of 0.025 and a hazard […]