Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Investment Thesis in Brief: In this report, I have put together an earnings forecast projecting EPS of (0.04) in 2019, $0.19 in 2020 and $0.33 in 2021. There are so many variables involved in my forecast that the error bars around these numbers are huge and they should be taken with a grain of salt. […]

Key Points Cryoport continued to show explosive growth in the third quarter as sales increased 76% to $5.3 million led by a 91% increase in biopharma (83% of total) sales. I am projecting a 60% increase in sales in 2019 to $30.7 million again led by a 69% increase in biopharma. (Detailed sales and a […]

Investment Thesis At Last, Three Major Product Approvals in 2018 It has been a torturous wait for Antares’ very promising pipeline to advance to commercialization, but the time has finally come. Antares and its partner Teva received approval for an AB rated generic to EpiPen on August 16, 2018 and Antares and its partner AMAG […]

Key Investment Points of this Report Regenerative medicines promises to be a (the) major technology driving the biopharma industry in coming decades. The CAR-T products are the first commercially significant products stemming from this technology, but they are just the tip of a very large iceberg. Novartis, Gilead and Celgene have gained first mover status […]

Introduction This is the latest in a series of updates on Portola and is prompted by information presented in the second quarter conference call. If this is your first encounter with the Company and you would like greater detail on the company’s technology, its products and clinical trial data, you may want to read my […]

Investment Summary At long last, the exciting new product potential of Antares is becoming a commercial reality. A very significant milestone for Antares was the approval gained by its distribution partner Teva in 2Q, 2016 for an AB rated generic to Imitrex (sumatriptan). This was the first of four AB rated generics that are known […]

Investment Thesis The investment outlook for AMAG in 2019 is primarily about Makena and this report focuses almost entirely on how much of the franchise can be maintained by the new auto-injector dosage form in the face of generic competition to the older intramuscular formulations. The Wall Street consensus 2019 sales estimate of around $200 […]

Investment Perspective On May 16, 2018, I published a report entitled Updated Sales and Earnings Model. The purpose of that report was to build a detailed sales model for the Company that for the first time incorporated Cryoport revenues arising from the sale of commercial products-the CAR-T drugs Kymriah and Yescarta. You may want to […]

Investment Thesis Omecamtiv is the Essence of the Investment Thesis I continue to believe that Cytokinetics is an attractive investment based on the potential for omecamtiv mecarbil, which promises to bring an important new mechanism of action to the treatment of congestive heart failure. If the ongoing phase 3, GALACIC-HF trial (a massive 8,000 patient […]

Investment Thesis in Brief This report is based on presentations by management at recent brokerage conferences. It is an update and not a comprehensive analysis of Portola. For more detailed analysis, you may want to refer to a series of reports on my website. I am reiterating my Buy recommendation on Portola. I have a […]