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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Post archive for ‘Company Reports’

Updating My Investment Thinking on Kite (KITE, Neutral, $47.63) and Juno (JUNO, Neutrl, 17.86) in the Aftermath of the ASH Meeting

Introduction to Report I was closely watching the Amercian Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting held during December 3 to 6 for any meaningful new data on the CAR-T products: Kite’s KTE-C19, Juno’s JCAR-015 and JCAR-017 and Novartis’ CTL-019. There wasn’t anything really earthshaking that came out of ASH, but there were a few tidbits of […]

Immuno-Oncology is Probably The Most Explosive Commercial Opportunity in All of BioPharma; My Investment Picks are Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY, Buy, $57.14) and Agenus (AGEN, Buy, $4.28))

Background Information on Checkpoint Modulation Let me provide background information that shapes my views on immuno-oncology before I get into my recommendation. The immune system has evolved over more than one billion years as a defense mechanism to protect humans and other life forms from pathogenic organisms that cause disease- notably bacteria, viruses, fungi and […]

My Current Investment Thinking on Kite (KITE, Neutral, $50.02) and Juno (JUNO, Neutral, $20.14) and the CAR-T Space as a Whole

Key Investment Conclusions I believe that Juno will cease development of JCAR-015 and turn to JCAR-017 as its lead CAR-T product. I estimate that this will result in Juno dropping two years behind Kite and Novartis in the race to commercialize CAR-T therapy for the crucial r/r DLBCL market. I believe that this late entry will […]

Cytokinetics: Results of COSMIC HF Published in The Lancet; Phase 3 GALACTIC HF Trial Has Started (CYTK, Buy, $12.00)

Key Points Results from the COSMIC HF phase 2 trial of omecamtiv mecarbil support the hypothesis that it improves heart function and (very importantly) reverses structural damage in patients with heart failure. Side effects are comparable to placebo. If these results are replicated in the GALACTIC-HF phase 3 trial, I believe that omecamtiv mecarbil has […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics: Phase 2 Trial in Colorectal Cancer with Liver Metastases Announced (NWBO, Buy, $0.55)

NWBO is preparing for the start of a phase 2 trial combining DCVax-L with Merck’s Keytruda in late stage colorectal cancer with liver metastases. This note is just my first impression of the announcement and I need to do much more work on the design of the trial and timelines, but I wanted to give my initial […]

Antares: Teva Projects Launch of AB Rated Generic to EpiPen in Early 2018 (ATRS, Buy, $1.87)

Eyal Desheh is the Chief Financial Officer of Teva. During the recent third quarter conference call, he answered a question from an analyst about the development status of the AB rated generic to EpiPen. He said: “In terms of EpiPen, we are working very closely with the FDA. I haven’t changed my view. My expectation […]

Antares: Some Key Points from 3Q, 2016 Conference Call (ATRS, Buy, $1.84)

Investment Opinion In my opinion, Antares is substantially undervalued. My price target is $6 60 in 2018. The thinking behind this was explained in my April 22, 2016  report “An Outstanding Product Pipeline Promises Dramatic Growth Through 2022” (see this link)  If you are unfamiliar with the Company or need to be refreshed, I would suggest […]

Cytokinetics: My Relative Market Value Analysis Suggests that the Stock Should be Selling at More Than $20 (CYTK, Buy, $8.95)

Investment Thesis Cytokinetics looks to me to be seriously undervalued when I contrast its market value (stock price multiplied by shares outstanding) of $430 million to that of other early stage biotechnology companies. In this note I look at key investment attributes of CYTK in comparison to those of a number of other biotechnology companies […]

Windtree Therapeutics (WINT, Take Tax Loss, $2.50): Critical Aerosurf Phase 2b Trial Completion is Delayed; Can the Company Raise the Capital Needed to Complete the Trial

Overview Windtree held a conference call on October 25 to update investors on the status of the phase 2a trial of Aerosurf and to discuss a trial that investigated the distribution of Aerosurf in the lungs of non-human primates. Management has consistently underestimated the time that it will take to complete the phase 2a trial. […]

Kite Pharma: Highlights of October 18, 2016 Analysts’ Day- I Remain More Cautious on the Stock than Mainstream Wall Street Analysts (KITE, Neutral, $46.45)

Key Points; The most important data point between now and yearend 2016 is release of data from ZUMA-1 that shows whether the CR rate for KTE-C19 in r/r DLBCL remains unchanged at 33% over time. This is the expectation of key analysts and management. If it comes in meaningfully below that rate, the stock could […]