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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Tag archive for ‘Cytokinetics’

Cytokinetics: A Look at the Clinical Trial Programs Underway (CYTK, Buy, $13.00)

The Investment Thesis Is Based on Three Drugs in Late Stage Development In partnership with Amgen, Cytokinetics has advanced omecamtiv mecarbil into phase 3 development for congestive heart failure; topline data is projected for January 2021. Without a partner, Cytokinetics has progressed tirasemtiv into a late phase 3 ALS trial; topline data is projected for […]

Cytokinetics: Estimating a Potential 2025 Price Target of $220 Based Only on the Potential for Tirasemtiv (CYTK, Buy, $13.00)

Key Points: Cytokinetics is likely to report results from the phase 3 VITALITY-ALS trial in early December 2017. I believe that this trial has a good chance of hitting the primary endpoint of sustained vital capacity (SVC) and gaining approval. The economic consequences for CYTK shareholders are enormous. In this report, I estimate a 2025 […]

Cytokinetics: Estimating a Potential 2025 Price Target of $172 Based Only on the Potential for Omecamtiv Mecarbil and Ignoring Tirasemtiv and CK-107 (CYTK, Buy, $13.00)

Key Points: Amgen and Cytokinetics have begun enrolling the phase 3 GALACTIC-HF trial of omecamtiv mecarbil in congestive heart failure (CHF). Topline data is not expected until January 2021. However, in the event of strong efficacy, the trial could potentially be halted at an interim look in 2020. Between now and then there will be […]

Cytokinetics: Discussion of Financing Deal with Royalty Partners (CYTK, Buy, $11)

Terms and Implications of This Deal Cytokinetics announced that it had concluded a deal to sell a portion of the future royalty stream on omecamtiv to Royalty Partners, perhaps the leading purveyor of this type of financial instrument. Omecamtiv is partnered with Amgen and recently entered the phase 3 GALACTIC HF trial which will enroll […]

Cytokinetics: Results of COSMIC HF Published in The Lancet; Phase 3 GALACTIC HF Trial Has Started (CYTK, Buy, $12.00)

Key Points Results from the COSMIC HF phase 2 trial of omecamtiv mecarbil support the hypothesis that it improves heart function and (very importantly) reverses structural damage in patients with heart failure. Side effects are comparable to placebo. If these results are replicated in the GALACTIC-HF phase 3 trial, I believe that omecamtiv mecarbil has […]

Cytokinetics: My Relative Market Value Analysis Suggests that the Stock Should be Selling at More Than $20 (CYTK, Buy, $8.95)

Investment Thesis Cytokinetics looks to me to be seriously undervalued when I contrast its market value (stock price multiplied by shares outstanding) of $430 million to that of other early stage biotechnology companies. In this note I look at key investment attributes of CYTK in comparison to those of a number of other biotechnology companies […]

Cytokinetics; Amgen and Servier Announce Decision to Move Omecamtiv Mecarbil into Phase 3 (CYTK, Buy, $12.07)

Amgen issued a press release today in which it announced that Servier had decided to exercise its option to commercialize omecamtiv mecarbil in chronic heart failure in Europe, Russia and certain other territories. The companies announced that the Phase 3 program of omecamtiv mecarbil will move forward in collaboration with Cytokinetics. I think that the gating […]

Cytokinetics: Tirasemtiv Completes Phase 3 Enrollment (CYTK, Buy, $11.89)

Cytokinetics has announced that the VITALITY-ALS trial of tirasemtiv has completed enrollment. The study includes three phases. The first is a two week open label phase; those patients who can tolerate tirasemtiv are then randomized into the second phase. This is a 48 week double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in which patients are randomized 3:2:2:2 to placebo […]

Cytokinetics: Collaboration with Astellas is Expanded and Will Bring in $65 Million of Cash (CYTK, $10.45, Buy)

Overview of Expanded Collaboration Cytokinetics and Astellas announced on July 27th that they had expanded their collaboration for the development of products based on skeletal muscle activation. Cytokinetics has pioneered this very promising field and I believe has a commanding edge in the understanding of drug development based on this biology. The expansion has two […]

Cytokinetics: Phase 2 Trial of CK-2127107 in COPD Begins (CYTK, $9.37, Buy)

Overview of COPD Cytokinetics announced today that it is beginning a phase 2 trial of CK-2127107 in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The trial is being conducted by CYTK’s partner Astellas. COPD usually is caused by long time smoking and has two main forms: (1) chronic bronchitis, which is characterized by a long-term cough with […]