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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Post archive for ‘Company Reports’

Aimmune Therapeutics: (AIMT, $23.63) Palforzia for Peanut Allergy Desensitization Has the Potential to Be a Blockbuster

Introduction Aimmune is the first company for some time on which I have picked up coverage. My screening criteria is not rigid, but I generally look for a company with a unique late stage product that has great commercial potential and has a solid financial (cash) position. Aimmune Therapeutics with Palforzia for desensitization of patients […]

Antares: Impressive Xyosted Prescription Trends Continue (ATRS, Buy, $3.30)

Key Points: Xyosted prescription trends remain impressive and based on audit data for the last 11 weeks, there has been an acceleration in the trend line. My model has slightly increased its 2019 sales estimate from $18.8 million as shown in my August 27 report to $19.4 million and for 2020 from $53.9 to $56.8 […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics: Management’s Decision to Determine Survival Tail for DCVax-L in Phase 3 Trial in Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma Was Absolutely the Right Move (NWBO, Buy, $0.25)

Key Points: NWBO is approaching unblinding of the critical phase 3 trial of DCVax-L in newly diagnosed glioblastoma (GBM). Management let the trial run longer in order to determine if there is a survival tail. This should prove critical to potential regulatory approval and commercialization. A meaningful survival tail has been key to the huge […]

Antares: Update on Sales Projections for Xyosted (ATRS, $3.30, Buy)

Investment Thesis I have seen seven plus months of data on prescription trends for Xyosted as estimated by the prescription auditing service Symphony. My confidence is strong that Xyosted is experiencing a very solid launch and is on its way to becoming a major success. I have developed a model that uses the Symphony data […]

Cytokinetics: Current Investment Thesis Is All About Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK. $13.26, Buy)

Investment Thesis is Almost Exclusively Driven by Prospects for Omecamtiv Mecarbil Omecamtiv Mecarbil is a Potential Mega- Blockbuster Omecamtiv mecarbil is one of the most exciting drugs in development in all of biopharma and is the primary driver of my investment thesis on Cytokinetics. If successful in the ongoing, phase 3 GALACTIC-HF trial, I believe […]

Cryoport: Quick Take on 2Q Results (CYRX, $20.18, Buy)

Cryoport reported a very strong quarter as sales increased by 83%. The key biopharma segment increased sales by 81%. This was led by a 326% increase in sales stemming from support of the commercial CAR-T products, Kymriah and Yescarta. Some $600,000 of incremental sales were recorded from the acquisition of Cryogene which closed on May […]

Portola: Andexxa Looks to be a Blockbuster (PTLA, $30.00, Buy)

Overview The investment story for Portola is virtually 100% based on the sales ramp for Andexxa. Skepticism and/ or uncertainty have been running high because new drug product launches in general are slow and disappointing and this is particularly true for hospital products like Andexxa. I have been taken aback at the poor stock performance. […]

Antares: Highlights from 2Q, 2019 Conference Call (ATRS, $3.29, Buy)

Introduction I have heard encouraging comments on my recently announced approach of doing shorter, less pedantic reports on new companies. This is so much so that I am extending this approach to companies that I have actively covered for some time and in this case Antares Pharma. For a Martian with no knowledge of Antares, […]

New Approach to SmithOnStocks Reports Starts with Aimmune Therapeutics (AIMT, $18.73)

My coverage strategy has been to identify stocks that I believed to be buys and initiate coverage with an in-depth report to be followed by updates. This is the classic Wall Street approach that was drilled into my psyche for nearly 35 years. The downside is that it takes a long time to research a […]

Antares Pharma: The Xyosted Launch Continues to Look Good (ATRS, Buy, $3.37)

Investment Thesis The cornerstone of my positive investment thesis for Antares is Xyosted, which was fully launched in January 2019. While it is early, I believe that the prescription trends seen over the last six months strongly indicate that the launch will be a success. In this report, I explain the methodology, I used to […]