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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Post archive for ‘Company Reports’

AMAG Pharmaceuticals: Trying to Project 2019 Sales for the Makena Franchise (AMAG, $24.45, Buy)

Investment Thesis The investment outlook for AMAG in 2019 is primarily about Makena and this report focuses almost entirely on how much of the franchise can be maintained by the new auto-injector dosage form in the face of generic competition to the older intramuscular formulations. The Wall Street consensus 2019 sales estimate of around $200 […]

Cryoport: Reiterating My Buy Recommendation (CYRX, Buy, $14.20)

Investment Perspective On May 16, 2018, I published a report entitled Updated Sales and Earnings Model. The purpose of that report was to build a detailed sales model for the Company that for the first time incorporated Cryoport revenues arising from the sale of commercial products-the CAR-T drugs Kymriah and Yescarta. You may want to […]

Cytokinetics: Update based on 2Q, 2018 Conference Call (CYTK, Buy, $6.85)

Investment Thesis Omecamtiv is the Essence of the Investment Thesis I continue to believe that Cytokinetics is an attractive investment based on the potential for omecamtiv mecarbil, which promises to bring an important new mechanism of action to the treatment of congestive heart failure. If the ongoing phase 3, GALACIC-HF trial (a massive 8,000 patient […]

Portola: Update and Reiteration of Buy Recommendation (PTLA, Buy, $39.31)

Investment Thesis in Brief This report is based on presentations by management at recent brokerage conferences. It is an update and not a comprehensive analysis of Portola. For more detailed analysis, you may want to refer to a series of reports on my website. I am reiterating my Buy recommendation on Portola. I have a […]

AMAG Pharmaceuticals: Strong Launch of Subcu Makena and Pending Sale of Cord Blood Registry is Encouraging (AMAG, $23.55, Buy)

Investment Thesis My April 13, 2018 report AMAG: Upgrading to Buy Based on an In-Depth Analysis of the Outlook for Makena Over the 2018 to 2020 Period (AMAG, Buy, $21.10) was based primarily on the belief that Makena sales could dramatically beat Wall Street analysts’ consensus expectations. Please refer to that report for my detailed […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics: There could be Overwhelming Patient Demand for DCVax-L due to the Right to Try law (NWBO, $0.24, Buy)

Investment Thesis in Brief I believe that it is now a matter of when rather than if DCVax-L is approved and becomes an integral part of standard of care (SOC) for newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme. I estimate that the worldwide addressable market is $5.5 billion and I would expect DCVax-L to penetrate a very significant […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics; Five Spectacular Patient Outcomes for Patients Treated with DCVax-L as Reported at ASCO (NWBO, $0.28, Buy)

Purpose of Report: At ASCO, Northwest sponsored a meeting attended by investigators in the phase 3 trial and other oncologists not involved in the trial. During the meeting, five patients gave testimonials on the spectacular outcomes that they had achieved due to treatment with DCVax-L. Four of these patients were treated in compassionate use programs […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics: Right to Try Law Potentially Could Lead to Meaningful Revenues Prior to Formal Approval of DCVax-L (NWBO, Buy, $0.30)

Investment Perspective Last week, a manuscript was published in a peer reviewed journal that dealt with blinded results of the phase 3 trial of DCVax-L that is investigating its use in newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme, the most deadly form of brain cancer. . The article was co-authored by 69 leading oncologists who participated in the […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics: Blinded Data from Phase 3 Trial Strongly Suggests that DCVax-L is a Major Advance in the Treatment of Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma Multiforme; It Looks Like NWBO Has Hit a Therapeutic and Commercial Home Run (NWBO, Buy, $0.25)

Investment Hypothesis on Dendritic Cell Cancer Vaccines I have no academic background in immunology so that you should take that into account as you read this hypothesis. You must recognize that mine is the view of a layman. That said, here is my hypothesis on the potentially breakthrough role for DCVax-L and dendritic cell cancer […]

Cytokinetics: Update on Extensive Clinical Trials Being Conducted (CYTK, Buy, $9.45)

Investment Overview and Thesis Cytokinetics has an extremely valuable asset in omecamtiv mecarbil, which it is developing in collaboration with Amgen; it is currently being studied in the huge, 8000+ patient, GALACTIC-HF phase 3 trial. I believe that this drug which is being studied in congestive heart failure is potentially one of the most important […]