Follow Us GraphicFacebook IconTwitter IconLinkedIn Icon
Search Graphic

Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Post archive for ‘Company Reports’

Antares Pharma: Detailed Sales and Earnings Model Through 2021 (ATRS, $2.85, Buy)

Investment Thesis Recently, I have received a couple of sarcastic comments to the effect that this stock has gone nowhere for the last five or so years and you have consistently recommended it. Why don’t you just admit were wrong and move on. I share the frustration. I buy stocks that I recommend and hold […]

Antares Pharma: The Xyosted Launch Looks Like it will Meet or Beat Wall Street Expectations for 2019 (ATRS, Buy, $2.90)

Investment Thesis The cornerstone of my positive investment thesis for Antares is Xyosted, which was fully launched in January 2019. While it is very early, I believe that the prescription trends seen over the last four plus months strongly indicate that the launch will be a success. Xyosted is Antares’ second wholly owned and marketed […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics: Takeaways from Marnix Bosch’s Presentation at ASCO (NWBO, Buy, $0.27)

Overview Marnix Bosch, Chief Technical Officer of Northwest Biotherapeutics, discussed three broad topics at ASCO on Sunday June 2, 2019. Factors that will determine when we might see the all-important topline data from the phase 3 trial of DCVax-L in newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). The hypothesized mode of action of DCVax Direct and plans […]

Cryoport: Details of My Model for Sales for 2018 to 2024 (CYRX, Buy, $16.88)

Key Points: I am projecting that total sales will increase from $19.6 million in 2018 to $31.0 million in 2019 and $83.9 million in 2024. This is a fourfold increase in sales over the 2018 to 2024 period. Even though these numbers appear to be aggressive, I have tried to go out of my way […]

Antares: Tracking Report on Xyosted Prescriptions (ATRS, Buy, $2.88)

Introduction and Overview I have obtained access to weekly prescription trends for Xyosted which I will publish periodically. Marketing began on December 14, 2018 and the data in this report runs through the week ending May 3, 2019. This audit data reports prescriptions as follows: NRx- the number of new prescriptions filled RRx-refilled prescriptions TRx- […]

Portola: Andexxa Sales in 1Q, 2019 Were Encouraging and Yet the Stock HasTraded Down (PTLA, Buy, $30.16)

Overview of 1Q, 2019 Results I was shocked to see Portola trading down about  $5.00 in following the release of 1Q, 2019 results. Almost all of the stock price relates to sales of Andexxa so one would think that the sharp drop was somehow the result of disappointing Andexxa sales. Not so. Consensus Street expectations […]

Cytokinetics: Based on Data from Fortitude ALS Trial, Cytokinetics and Astellas Indicate They Will Undertake Phase 3 Trial of Reldesemtiv in ALS (CYTK, Buy, $9.30)

Key Points: Trial missed achieving statistical significance on primary endpoint of slow vital capacity Still, key opinion leaders when looking at the totality of data are strongly supportive of launching a phase 3 trial Management has not yet issued guidance, but my guess is that the trial could begin in late 2019 and conclude in […]

Repligen Stock Price Surges on Announcement of Preliminary 1Q, 2010 Results and Acquisition of CT Technologies (RGEN, Buy, $68.61)

Business Accelerated Dramatically in 1Q, 2019 Repligen’s stock exploded on Friday April 26, 2019 as it increased $11.65 (up 20%) to $68.89. This was primarily caused by the pre-announcement that the Company expected organic sales growth of 35-37% in the quarter which compares to consistent, past guidance from the Company that it aims to achieve […]

Portola: Detailed Update on Exciting 2019 Outlook (PTLA, Buy, $33.35)

Key Conclusion The outlook for Portola’s stock price in 2019 and 2020 will almost certainly driven by the sales progress of Andexxa. At this early stage in the launch, there is considerable uncertainty and guesswork involved in projecting sales. My preliminary estimates are that sales increase from $24 million in 2019 to $120 million in […]

Antares (ATRS, Buy, $3.51); AMAG Pharmaceuticals (AMAG, $11.73) First Thoughts about How the PROLONG Study Could Affect Makena Usage

Introduction On Friday, the PROLONG clinical study was released that showed no difference in outcomes between Makena and placebo. This was a major surprise and disappointment and caused a sharp decline in the stock price of AMAG and to a lesser extent Antares. This note goes over my preliminary thinking on the possible outcome of […]