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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Post archive for ‘Company Reports’

Portola: Detailed Update on Exciting 2019 Outlook (PTLA, Buy, $33.35)

Key Conclusion The outlook for Portola’s stock price in 2019 and 2020 will almost certainly driven by the sales progress of Andexxa. At this early stage in the launch, there is considerable uncertainty and guesswork involved in projecting sales. My preliminary estimates are that sales increase from $24 million in 2019 to $120 million in […]

Antares (ATRS, Buy, $3.51); AMAG Pharmaceuticals (AMAG, $11.73) First Thoughts about How the PROLONG Study Could Affect Makena Usage

Introduction On Friday, the PROLONG clinical study was released that showed no difference in outcomes between Makena and placebo. This was a major surprise and disappointment and caused a sharp decline in the stock price of AMAG and to a lesser extent Antares. This note goes over my preliminary thinking on the possible outcome of […]

Cryoport: Great Buying Opportunity (CYRX. Buy, $10.44)

Quick Comment on 4Q, 2018 Sales and Earnings Report Cryoport reported a spectacular 4Q, 2018 quarter last night. Biopharma revenues which are 84% of total revenues increased 94% to $4.9 million which compared to my estimate of $4.3 million. Total revenues increased 72% to $5.7 million as compared to my estimate of $5.2 million. The […]

Cytokinetics: A Focus on 2019 Stock Price Catalysts (CYTK, Buy, $5.82)

Investment Thesis Omecamtiv is one of the Most Exciting Drugs in Development in all of Biopharma The primary driver of the investment thesis on Cytokinetics is the potential use of omecamtiv in the treatment of heart failure. I believe that this drug potentially is a major advance in the treatment of this disease which affects […]

Antares: Sales Growth Guidance for 2019 is Extremely Bullish (ATRS, $3.60, Buy)

Antares just reported 4Q, 2018 sales and earnings. I will do a more detailed analysis of the Company sometime after the release of the 10-K in mid-March. However, I wanted to make a brief comment about the guidance that the Company provided for 2019 sales growth. Antares now has two wholly owned products marketed with […]

Portola: NEJM Report on Positive Results in ANNEXA-4 Study is a Significant Positive (PTLA, Buy, $28.89)

Overview This report focuses narrowly on the New England Journal of Medicine article. If you would like a more thorough discussion on the fundamentals of Portola I suggest that you refer to two recent reports. Key Points Andexxa (andexanet) is the only approved treatment for reversal of anticoagulant effects of Factor Xa inhibitor drugs like […]

Agenus: New Blockchain Financing Instrument Could Cause a Paradigm Shift in Financing Small Biotechnology Firms (AGEN, Buy, $3.37)

Key Points Agenus is the first biotechnology company to use a new and innovative blockchain based technology for financing development of a specific product. This new technology could break the lock on financing of biotechnology firms now held by investment banking firms in the same way that Amazon has devastated most sectors of retailing.   […]

Bristol-Myers Squibb: A Highly Innovative Company Priced Like a Value Stock (BMY, Buy, $48.99)

Investment Thesis Investors have turned a thumbs down on the proposed acquisition of Celgene as there was an immediate 14% plunge in the stock price of BMY to $45. Investors are concerned about the patent situation with Celgene’s Revlimid which represents about 64% of CELG sales. The key patent protection on Revlimid expires in 2027, […]

Portola: Tidbits from Presentation at JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (PTLA, Buy, $21.96)

Investment Thesis in Brief Andexxa is the only approved product for treating severe bleeds (sometimes life threatening) caused by the Factor Xa inhibitors, principally Xarelto and Eliquis. Current standard of care (SOC) treatments have scant clinical data and are not approved by the FDA. Impotantly, Andexxa inhibits 90% of Factor Xa activity in two minutes […]

Cryoport: The Bristol-Myers Acquisition of Celgene is a Validation of my Investment Thesis for Cryoport (CYRX, Buy, $9.05)

Investment Thesis The proposed acquisition of Celgene by Bristol-Myers Squibb was generally panned by Wall Street investors and analysts as BMY stock dropped 14% on the news. The investment community is deeply concerned with the patent situation with Revlimid which accounts for over 60% of CELG revenues. There will be full blown generic entries in […]