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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Tag archive for ‘Antares Pharma Inc.’

Antares: Highlights from 2Q, 2019 Conference Call (ATRS, $3.29, Buy)

Introduction I have heard encouraging comments on my recently announced approach of doing shorter, less pedantic reports on new companies. This is so much so that I am extending this approach to companies that I have actively covered for some time and in this case Antares Pharma. For a Martian with no knowledge of Antares, […]

Antares Pharma: The Xyosted Launch Continues to Look Good (ATRS, Buy, $3.37)

Investment Thesis The cornerstone of my positive investment thesis for Antares is Xyosted, which was fully launched in January 2019. While it is early, I believe that the prescription trends seen over the last six months strongly indicate that the launch will be a success. In this report, I explain the methodology, I used to […]

Antares Pharma: Detailed Sales and Earnings Model Through 2021 (ATRS, $2.85, Buy)

Investment Thesis Recently, I have received a couple of sarcastic comments to the effect that this stock has gone nowhere for the last five or so years and you have consistently recommended it. Why don’t you just admit were wrong and move on. I share the frustration. I buy stocks that I recommend and hold […]

Antares Pharma: The Xyosted Launch Looks Like it will Meet or Beat Wall Street Expectations for 2019 (ATRS, Buy, $2.90)

Investment Thesis The cornerstone of my positive investment thesis for Antares is Xyosted, which was fully launched in January 2019. While it is very early, I believe that the prescription trends seen over the last four plus months strongly indicate that the launch will be a success. Xyosted is Antares’ second wholly owned and marketed […]

Antares: Tracking Report on Xyosted Prescriptions (ATRS, Buy, $2.88)

Introduction and Overview I have obtained access to weekly prescription trends for Xyosted which I will publish periodically. Marketing began on December 14, 2018 and the data in this report runs through the week ending May 3, 2019. This audit data reports prescriptions as follows: NRx- the number of new prescriptions filled RRx-refilled prescriptions TRx- […]

Antares (ATRS, Buy, $3.51); AMAG Pharmaceuticals (AMAG, $11.73) First Thoughts about How the PROLONG Study Could Affect Makena Usage

Introduction On Friday, the PROLONG clinical study was released that showed no difference in outcomes between Makena and placebo. This was a major surprise and disappointment and caused a sharp decline in the stock price of AMAG and to a lesser extent Antares. This note goes over my preliminary thinking on the possible outcome of […]

Antares: Sales Growth Guidance for 2019 is Extremely Bullish (ATRS, $3.60, Buy)

Antares just reported 4Q, 2018 sales and earnings. I will do a more detailed analysis of the Company sometime after the release of the 10-K in mid-March. However, I wanted to make a brief comment about the guidance that the Company provided for 2019 sales growth. Antares now has two wholly owned products marketed with […]

Antares: Multiple New Product Launches Make for Extreme Complexity in Earnings Forecasts for 2019 to 2021 (ATRS, Buy, $3.59)

Investment Thesis in Brief: In this report, I have put together an earnings forecast projecting EPS of (0.04) in 2019, $0.19 in 2020 and $0.33 in 2021. There are so many variables involved in my forecast that the error bars around these numbers are huge and they should be taken with a grain of salt. […]

Antares: Xyosted is Approved; Let the Good Times Roll (ATRS, Buy, $3.77)

Investment Thesis At Last, Three Major Product Approvals in 2018 It has been a torturous wait for Antares’ very promising pipeline to advance to commercialization, but the time has finally come. Antares and its partner Teva received approval for an AB rated generic to EpiPen on August 16, 2018 and Antares and its partner AMAG […]

Antares: Investment Story has Shifted from Pipeline Promise to Commercial Potential (ATRS, $3.74, Buy)

Investment Summary At long last, the exciting new product potential of Antares is becoming a commercial reality. A very significant milestone for Antares was the approval gained by its distribution partner Teva in 2Q, 2016 for an AB rated generic to Imitrex (sumatriptan). This was the first of four AB rated generics that are known […]