Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Glossary of Important Definitions For those of you who are not familiar with terms used in neonatology, I am starting this report with some definitions used in this report to explain the outcome of the recent phase 2a trial of Aerosurf. Surfactant Surfactant coats the alveoli (the air sacs in the lungs where oxygen enters […]

Introduction to Report One of my assets is also one of my biggest drawbacks. When I am writing on a Company I start out thinking that I have a good understanding of the Company, but inevitably as I dig deeper, I find out that the more information I gather the more questions that arise in […]

Key Investment Points Stemming from ASCO I have been going over data presented at ASCO on immune-oncology products and have been listening carefully to the presentations by Northwest Biotherapeutics and other companies active in this space, particularly Bristol-Myers Squibb and Merck. Let me summarize some of my key takeaways which will be addressed in more […]

SmithOnStocks Mailbox About the Mailbox: My mailbox comments are brief articles on stocks in which I am involved. These can come from recent events or from subscribers’ questions. They are meant to address specific issues about these stocks and are not full and balanced reports. Please refer to the Reports section of my website for […]

Investment Overview I find the recent stock weakness in Cytokinetics perplexing. The Company has a market value of about $300 million which seems extremely low relative to other biotechnology companies. Generally companies with meaningful drugs in phase 3 development have market capitalizations of $500 million or more. Cytokinetics has two very meaningful drugs: tirasemtiv will […]

Overview of Report I found the Agenus R&D day to be extremely interesting as it showcased the impressive immunotherapy technology base of Agenus. Presentations by management and key opinion leaders went into great detail on the Company’s core Prophage cancer vaccine and checkpoint modulator technologies. I have included bullet points on remarks that most interested […]

Investment Thesis in Brief By the end of 2015, Cytokinetics (CYTK) will have tirasemtiv in a phase 3 trial in ALS and might also have omecamtiv in a phase 3 trial in heart failure. There is no financing overhang as the Company has $118 million of cash which can last for over 20 months. This […]

Overview An FDA advisory panel on April 30 recommended by a vote of 22 to 1 that Amgen’s cancer vaccine talimogene laherparepvec be approved for the treatment of later stages of inoperable metastatic melanoma. The final decision will be made by the FDA, but it would be very surprising for the FDA to go against […]

Introduction to This Thought Piece Emerging biotechnology stocks obviously are very hard to value on an absolute basis because they usually have no or minimal sales and huge operating losses. Many Wall Street analysts arrive at price targets by making long term sales and earnings projections; risk adjusting the estimates through predicting probability of successful […]

ZS Pharma Investment Thesis The Hyperkalemia Market Opportunity is Huge; There Are No Good Current Drugs The most important piece of the investment thesis for ZS Pharma is the sheer size of the opportunity for treating hyperkalemia. In my recent report, Effective Treatment of Hyperkalemia Promises to be a Multi-billion Opportunity, I provided a framework for […]