Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Derma Sciences announced preliminary sales results for 2014 of $83.7 million which represents a 5% increase over 2013. This was lower than guidance announced on November 10, 2014 that 2014 sales would approach $85.0 million. It was sharply lower than guidance given on January 16, 2014 that 2014 sales would reach $92.0 million, which would […]

This deal adds a third leg to the development pipeline at Cytokinetics along with omecamtiv for congestive heart failure and tirasemtiv for ALS. My Buy recommendation has been based on the possibility that tirasemtiv will begin a phase 3 in ALS in 2015. Investors had written this product off after a phase 2b disappointment. This […]

I was just asked about the potential impact on the value of the Trius CVR of the Merck acquisition of Cubist. You may recall that when Trius was acquired, Trius shareholders received $1.00 for each share that they tendered. If Syvestro (tedizolid) sales in the US, Europe and Canada reach $125 million in 2016  we get […]

Phase 2a Aerosurf trial completion has been pushed back to 1Q, 2015 from 4Q, 2014. All important topline results from Aerosurf phase 2b proof of concept trial are likewise pushed back from 2H, 2015 to 1H, 2016. Management mention of pneumothoraxes seen in phase 2a startled investors, but is not likely to be an issue […]

Immuno-oncology is one of the most exciting areas for cancer research and cancer vaccines should be considered as a promising research area within immuno-oncology. Cancer vaccines might have been expected to produce great investor interest, but a long string of clinical trial failures over the last decade has made investors cautious or skeptical. However, evidence […]

I project 2015 sales of Otrexup at $22 million; if so, it would be generating profit in the latter half of 2015. Antares seems confident that Teva’s generic to EpiPen will be approved in June 2015 and AB rated. On an annualized basis, I see this this generic contributing $25 million pretax by 4Q, 2015. […]

Neil Woodford, a highly respected UK portfolio manager has just invested $25 million on very favorable terms and the Company has also received $10 million from a mortgage financing. This takes away the concern about financing that has been a lid on the stock. There is now a cash runway to see the Company through […]

Investment Thesis Celldex held a conference call after the close on Friday, November 14, 2014 to discuss the interim results of the phase 2 trial of rindopepimut in recurrent glioblastoma multiforme (also referred to as GBM). The results were quite positive-much better than I expected- and I believe that they can be the basis for […]

Investment Thinking Cytokinetics could announce the decision on whether it will advance tirasemtiv into a pivotal phase 3 trial by the end of 2014. In my opinion, management will only make this decision if the FDA agrees under a Special Protocol Assessment that a new primary endpoint of slow vital capacity, SVC, can be used. […]

The fundamental outlook for Chimerix is very attractive in my opinion. My model suggests that sales of its lead drug brincidofovir could reach $800 million in 2021 based only on use in allogeneic  hematopoietic stem cell and other severely immunocompromised patients. It could have significant uses beyond this. Topline data on the phase 3 SUPPRESS […]