Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Report Overview Adam Feuerstein launched a withering attack on Agenus (AGEN) and me in his column. The gist of the article is that Agenus is misrepresenting data pertaining to the use of Prophage in glioblastoma in ways that overstate Prophage’s efficacy and I am naively buying into this. It was a very short note on […]

Thoughts on the Stock Price I have been recommending Neuralstem (CUR) since my initiation report of November 5, 2012 at a price of $0.92. The stock has appreciated significantly over the past year and has been extremely strong in the month of September as the price increased from $1.60 on the 4th to a close of $2.68 […]

Reason for This Report Agenus (AGEN) just issued an update on a phase II trial of Prophage G-100 combined with current standard of care in newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients that showed median overall survival (OS) of 23.3 months. There was no control group in the study but data from recent trials suggests that OS with […]

Investment Overview I first recommended NovaBay (NBY) as a small company that fit my asymmetric investment strategy in an initiation report on October 30, 2012 at a price of $1.32. The basis of my recommendation was that in 2013 the company would be reporting phase II b data on trials of its lead drug auriclosene […]

Company Overview and Purpose of the Report NovaBay (NBY) will be reporting the results of three Phase II clinical trials involving its first in class “non-antibiotic”, anti-microbial agent auriclosene (NVC-422) over the next three quarters. The mechanism of action and previously conducted phase I and II trials indicate that it has broad spectrum activity against […]

Investment Thesis Glaxo (GSK) announced today that the trial of their MAGE A-3 cancer vaccine in the DERMA trial in stage IIIb/c melanoma did not meet its endpoint of progression free survival. Agenus’ QS-21 adjuvant is a component of this vaccine and Agenus would be entitled to a royalty upon commercialization. Agenus’ stock traded down […]

Introduction Cytokinetics issued a press release on the results of the phase II trial of ATOMIC-AHF and then held a conference call on September 3. Before the results were discussed in the conference call, news wires reported that the trial had missed its primary endpoint and this caused an immediate sharp sell-off in the stock. […]

Investment Overview I initiated coverage of Agenus (AGEN) with a Buy on July 17, 2013 based on the pending release of clinical trial data on five development programs over the next three quarters. Each of these events, some more than others, has the potential to boost the stock at the time the data is reported. […]

Investment Overview and Thesis Antares has carved out an interesting niche in the pharmaceutical industry through building a drug delivery business based on sophisticated injection technologies. Large pharmaceutical companies have always been “oral dosage centric” in their development of dosage forms for their drugs. Their goal has almost always been to find a once a […]

Report Summary In this report, I go through a detailed sales, earnings and cash flow projections for the period 2013 through 2019. I am projecting that sales of the core bioprocessing business will grow at 13% per annum in the 2013 to 2016 timeframe. The EPS picture is complicated because the expiration of the royalty […]