Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

I am a little sad to see Antares sell out to Halozyme. I thought that the rubber was just starting to meet the road and that it was too early to consider selling out although this was always the likely long term outcome. Oh well, maybe management knows or fears something that I am not […]

Investment Thinking The fourth quarter conference call was very encouraging to me. The investment thesis is coming together much better and faster than I had hoped a year or so ago. Total sales for 2020 increased by 21%% to $149.6 million and the Company is guiding to a 17 to 33% increase in 2021 to […]

Key Point I think that the stock has the potential to double in 2021. New Revenue Guidance Antares has just issued guidance that 2020 revenues are expected to be in the range of $145 to $150 million which compares to $124 million in 2020. The midpoint of this range represents a 19% increase from 2019. […]

Sales Projections for Xyosted Xyosted just completed its sixth full quarter of sales since its launch in 4Q, 2018. Almost all product launches are difficult in this managed care environment. It often takes a year or so to get reimbursement issues partially resolved. Just as Xyosted got through this, the launch ran smack into the […]

Investment Perspective Periodically, I get a comment from one subscriber regarding Antares to the effect of why are you bothering with this dog. Over the last five years, the stock hit a low of $0.95 on January 10, 2016 and a high of $4.89 on December 22, 2019. However, it mostly has traded in a […]

Investment Overview Antares stock has been more impacted by the market sell off than many other biotechnology stocks which have rebounded sharply. This occurred even though Covid-19 issues appear to have had only a modest and temporary impact on 2020 results based on what we saw in 1Q. I continue to think there is great […]

Objective of This Report Antares is an extremely difficult company to model on a sales and earnings basis. Its core technology is based on the use of sophisticated, subcutaneous injector devices to deliver injectable drugs, both patented and generic. This has resulted in two business models. One is based on its proprietary products, Xyosted and […]

Purpose of Report I just listened to the presentation by Antares at the Jefferies conference in London on Wednesday, November 20 and this report is a summary of key points that I heard on the call. I am in the process of coming up with my sales and earnings model for 2020 and beyond. There […]

Key Points In my sales and earnings model for 2020, I will be using a working estimate of $53.6 million for sales of Xyosted in 2020. My working estimate is lower than two alternative scenarios laid out in this report. In Scenario 1, I arrive at a sales estimate of $70.3 million for 2020 and […]

Key Points: Xyosted launch continues to impress. Projecting sales of $22 million in 2019 and over $50 million in 2019 AB rated generic to EpiPen royalties estimated at $6.2 million in 3Q. AB rated generic to Forteo could be launched this year. Potential is greater than AB rated generic to EpiPen. I predict that FDA […]