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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Antares: Comment on Strength in the Stock Price (ATRS, $1.29, Buy)

A number of people have asked me if I know of any specific reason for the strength in Antares's stock following the 2Q, 2016 conference call. The stock reached an inter-day high today of $1.34 today which is a high for the year. For much of the year to date, it has been trading around $1.00 or below. I don't know of any specific reason at this point in time. However, there has been and continues to be strength in emerging biotechnology stocks across the board so investors are looking for new names as opposed to ignoring small biotechnology stocks. The exceptional new product outlook of the Company was highlighted nicely on the 2Q conference call and this may have led to some buying. I believe that Antares has an exceptional new product flow and I think that the Company has been dramatically under-valued because of the disappointing launch of Otrexup and the CRL on the AB rated generic to EpiPen. I would refer you to my April 22, 2016 report for my detailed sales and earnings model that incorporates the new product outlook.

Antares: An Outstanding Product Pipeline Promises Dramatic Growth Through 2022 (ATRS, Buy, $0.92)

My model suggests that the Company will reach profitability in 2017 and experience explosive growth in 2018, 2019 and beyond. I think that there is a good chance for an AB EpiPen launch in 2018.  However, I look at Antares both with and without a launch in that year. My 2018 price target is $5.70 in 2018 without an AB EpiPen launch and $6.60 with a launch. This is based on applying a 15x P/E ratio to projected 2019 EPS.

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    I suspect that the surge in volume and price today, with a high of $1.44, was related to the news that Mylan may come under Congressional scrutiny for apparently rather exorbitant price increases in its EpiPen. Prices are up about six-fold over the last several years. Thus an approved generic version could have added traction and acceptance in the marketplace.

  2. Lawrence Braverman says:

    “…Antares said in a presentation in early January that it has received questions from the FDA as part of a standard ongoing active review of the application for its generic version of EpiPen. The company also said in the same presentation that Teva expects approval of an AB rated (generically equivalent rated) product “at the earliest in 2H16.”

    Any chance they’ll move that timeframe up, based on the recent Mylan developments?

  3. I don’t know.


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