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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Post archive for ‘LinkedIn’

Cryoport: Exciting Clinical Data on CAR-T Drugs Points to Dramatic Growth (CYRX, Buy, $14.59)

Investment Overview ASH is a Key Annual Event The annual meeting of the American Society of Hematology (ASH) is a closely watched showcase for new clinical data on drugs. Each year, there are literally thousands of papers presented. One of the really hot areas this year (as has been the case for the last two […]

Antares: Detailed Sales and Earnings Projections for 2020, 2021 and 2022 (ATRS, Buy, $4.86)

Objective of This Report Antares is an extremely difficult company to model on a sales and earnings basis. Its core technology is based on the use of sophisticated, subcutaneous injector devices to deliver injectable drugs, both patented and generic. This has resulted in two business models. One is based on its proprietary products, Xyosted and […]

Cryoport: A Model Projecting How Commercially Approved Products Supported by Cryoport Will Drive Growth Through 2024 (CYRX, Buy, $15.12)

Investment Perspective The main revenue driver for Cryoport from 2015 to 2019 came from providing cryogenic shipping services to companies conducting clinical trials preparatory to seeking regulatory approval. However, this began to change in 1Q, 2018 as regulatory approvals were gained for two commercial products, the CAR-T drugs Kymriah and Yescarta. These were supported by […]

Antares Pharma: Highlights from Presentation at Jefferies Healthcare Conference: (ATRS, Buy, $4.79)

Purpose of Report I just listened to the presentation by Antares at the Jefferies conference in London on Wednesday, November 20 and this report is a summary of key points that I heard on the call. I am in the process of coming up with my sales and earnings model for 2020 and beyond. There […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics: Company is Closing in on Unblinding of the Phase 3 Trial of DCVax-L in GBM That Could Lead to a Cascade of Important Follow-On Events (NWBO, Buy, $0.22)

Key Points In the third quarter 10-Q regulatory filing, it was disclosed that the draft form of the trial’s Statistical Analysis Plan (SAP) has been finalized for the phase 3 trial of DCVax-L in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). This followed lengthy and extensive work on the part of independent statisticians and the distinguished Scientific Advisory Board. […]

Portola: Detailed Spreadsheet Projecting Sales and Earnings Through 4Q, 2021 (PTLA, Buy, $28.00)

Key Points: The sales model presented in this report projects sales for Portola of $119, $264 and $402 million for 2019, 2020 and 2021. While the numbers presented in this model appear to be precise, the assumptions used in putting it together involve a lot of judgments (guesswork) and are imprecise. You should take the […]

Antares Pharma: Quick Take on Implication of 3Q Results for Future Growth (ATRS, Buy, $3.70)

Key Points: Xyosted launch continues to impress. Projecting sales of $22 million in 2019 and over $50 million in 2019 AB rated generic to EpiPen royalties estimated at $6.2 million in 3Q. AB rated generic to Forteo could be launched this year. Potential is greater than AB rated generic to EpiPen. I predict that FDA […]

AMAG Pharmaceuticals: AdCom Votes 9 to 7 to Remove Makena from the Market, but I Don’t Think It Will Happen:  AMAG (AMAG, $9.80), Antares Pharma (ATRS, $3.40, Buy)

The FDA AdCom meeting voted 9 to 7 to withdraw Makena from the market. However, 6 of 7 practicing OB/GYNs on the panel voted to keep Makenna on the market and to do additional studies to properly define its role in the management of women with singleton pregnancies who previously have had a preterm birth. […]

AMAG Pharmaceuticals (AMAG, $12.20); Antares (ATRS, Buy, $3.59) What Will FDA AdCom Recommend on Makena in the Aftermath of Failed Prolong Trial?

Key Conclusions I believe that there is a 95% probability that Makena will remain on the market and only a 5% chance that it could be withdrawn. I think that results of PROLONG will be incorporated into the Makena label and the FDA may or may not ask for another trial. There is no approved […]

Cryoport: Stock Has Been Attacked by Short Sellers (CYRX, $14.57, Buy)

Opinion on Stock The recent sharp price decline has not been attributable to any change in perceived or actual fundamentals of Cryoport. (See the appendix of this report for a discussion on price behavior over the last month.) I have stated repeatedly that Cryoport has one of the best business models that I have seen […]