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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

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AMAG Pharmaceuticals: Strong Launch of Subcu Makena and Pending Sale of Cord Blood Registry is Encouraging (AMAG, $23.55, Buy)

Investment Thesis My April 13, 2018 report AMAG: Upgrading to Buy Based on an In-Depth Analysis of the Outlook for Makena Over the 2018 to 2020 Period (AMAG, Buy, $21.10) was based primarily on the belief that Makena sales could dramatically beat Wall Street analysts’ consensus expectations. Please refer to that report for my detailed […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics: There could be Overwhelming Patient Demand for DCVax-L due to the Right to Try law (NWBO, $0.24, Buy)

Investment Thesis in Brief I believe that it is now a matter of when rather than if DCVax-L is approved and becomes an integral part of standard of care (SOC) for newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme. I estimate that the worldwide addressable market is $5.5 billion and I would expect DCVax-L to penetrate a very significant […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics; Five Spectacular Patient Outcomes for Patients Treated with DCVax-L as Reported at ASCO (NWBO, $0.28, Buy)

Purpose of Report: At ASCO, Northwest sponsored a meeting attended by investigators in the phase 3 trial and other oncologists not involved in the trial. During the meeting, five patients gave testimonials on the spectacular outcomes that they had achieved due to treatment with DCVax-L. Four of these patients were treated in compassionate use programs […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics: Right to Try Law Potentially Could Lead to Meaningful Revenues Prior to Formal Approval of DCVax-L (NWBO, Buy, $0.30)

Investment Perspective Last week, a manuscript was published in a peer reviewed journal that dealt with blinded results of the phase 3 trial of DCVax-L that is investigating its use in newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme, the most deadly form of brain cancer. . The article was co-authored by 69 leading oncologists who participated in the […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics: Blinded Data from Phase 3 Trial Strongly Suggests that DCVax-L is a Major Advance in the Treatment of Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma Multiforme; It Looks Like NWBO Has Hit a Therapeutic and Commercial Home Run (NWBO, Buy, $0.25)

Investment Hypothesis on Dendritic Cell Cancer Vaccines I have no academic background in immunology so that you should take that into account as you read this hypothesis. You must recognize that mine is the view of a layman. That said, here is my hypothesis on the potentially breakthrough role for DCVax-L and dendritic cell cancer […]

Cytokinetics: Update on Extensive Clinical Trials Being Conducted (CYTK, Buy, $9.45)

Investment Overview and Thesis Cytokinetics has an extremely valuable asset in omecamtiv mecarbil, which it is developing in collaboration with Amgen; it is currently being studied in the huge, 8000+ patient, GALACTIC-HF phase 3 trial. I believe that this drug which is being studied in congestive heart failure is potentially one of the most important […]

Cryoport: Updated Sales and Earnings Model (CYRX, Buy, $9.69)

Purpose of this Report With the commercial launches of the CAR-T products Kymriah and Yescarta, I am expecting a significant upward inflection in sales for Cryoport. The primary objective of this report is to formulate an improved sales and earnings model in order to show this. First quarter results from Cryoport, Novartis and Gilead have […]

Antares: Recent Launch of Makena Subcu Auto Injector and Probable Launches of Xyosted and AB Rated Generic to EpiPen Could Make for an Outstanding Price Performance in 2018 (ATRS, Buy, $2.36)

Key Investment Issues In this report I focus on three very important product related issues that will likely drive the stock price performance of Antares in 2018. Roughly in order of importance they are: The launch trajectory of the Makena subcutaneous auto injector, Probable approval of the Teva’s AB rated generic to EpiPen, and The […]

AMAG:  It Is Early Days, but the Launch of the Subcutaneous Dosage Form of Makena Seems to be Going Very Well (AMAG, Buy, $21.17)

Investment Thesis The investment thesis for AMAG in 2018 and 2019is overwhelmingly dependent on how successful the Company will be in switching patients from the intra-muscular (IM) dosage of Makena to the new subcutaneous (subcu) formulation. The subcu was launched on March 26 and the first patient was injected on March 28. The subcu has […]

Portola: Approval of AndexXa is a Major Positive (PTLA, Buy, $41.19)

Investment Opinion Based on assumptions made in this report, I estimate that AndexXa could be valued by investors at $114 to $ 200 per Portola share by 2023. This makes Portola a very attractive investment opportunity without taking into account any contribution from Bevyxxa which was recently launched in the US and potential pipeline contributions, […]