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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Cytokinetics: VITALITY-ALS Trial Fails (CYTK, Buy, $8.00)

CYTK announced today that the VITALITY-ALS trial in ALS failed which is obviously a significant disappointment. The stock is trading…
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Cytokinetics: Even if Tirasemtiv Were to Fail in Vitality-ALS. There is Great Long term Stock Potential (CYTK, $14.25, Buy)

Critical VITALITY-ALS Data Is Imminent

During the 3Q conference call, Cytokinetics said that the still unknown results of the VITALITY-ALS trial of…
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Cytokinetics: Reiteration of My Long Standing Buy Recommendation Based on an Extraordinary Pipeline (CYTK, $12.90, Buy)

Investment Overview and Thesis

Investment Overview

Cytokinetics reported 2Q, 2017 sales and earnings results on Wednesday, August 2 but this was relatively…
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Cytokinetics: Comments on the Upside Move Today (CYTK, Buy, $12.90)

Cytokinetics is up $1.15 or 10% to $12.90 in a poor market environment. The only news is that the Company…
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Cytokinetics: Insights into Corporate Collaborations, Tirasemtiv, CK-107 and Hospitalization Caused by Heart Failure (CYTK, Buy, $11.25)

Introduction

I was just going though the most recently published slide deck of Cytokinetics and found some slides that I thought…
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Cytokinetics: A Look at the Clinical Trial Programs Underway (CYTK, Buy, $13.00)

The Investment Thesis Is Based on Three Drugs in Late Stage Development

In partnership with Amgen, Cytokinetics has advanced omecamtiv mecarbil…
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Cytokinetics: Estimating a Potential 2025 Price Target of $220 Based Only on the Potential for Tirasemtiv (CYTK, Buy, $13.00) and Ignoring Omecamtiv Mecarbil and CK-107

Key Points:

Cytokinetics is likely to report results from the phase 3 VITALITY-ALS trial in early December 2017. I believe…
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Cytokinetics: Estimating a Potential 2025 Price Target of $172 Based Only on the Potential for Omecamtiv Mecarbil and Ignoring Tirasemtiv and CK-107 (CYTK, Buy, $13.00)

Key Points:

Amgen and Cytokinetics have begun enrolling the phase 3 GALACTIC-HF trial of omecamtiv mecarbil in congestive heart failure…
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Cytokinetics: Discussion of Financing Deal with Royalty Partners (CYTK, Buy, $11)

Terms and Implications of This Deal

Cytokinetics announced that it had concluded a deal to sell a portion of the future…
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Cytokinetics: Results of COSMIC HF Published in The Lancet; Phase 3 GALACTIC HF Trial Has Started (CYTK, Buy, $12.00)

Key Points

Results from the COSMIC HF phase 2 trial of omecamtiv mecarbil support the hypothesis that it improves heart…
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Cytokinetics: My Relative Market Value Analysis Suggests that the Stock Should be Selling at More Than $20 (CYTK, Buy, $8.95)

Investment Thesis

Cytokinetics looks to me to be seriously undervalued when I contrast its market value (stock price multiplied by shares…
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Cytokinetics; Amgen and Servier Announce Decision to Move Omecamtiv Mecarbil into Phase 3 (CYTK, Buy, $12.07)

Amgen issued a press release today in which it announced that Servier had decided to exercise its option to commercialize omecamtiv…
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Cytokinetics: Tirasemtiv Completes Phase 3 Enrollment (CYTK, Buy, $11.89)

Cytokinetics has announced that the VITALITY-ALS trial of tirasemtiv has completed enrollment. The study includes three phases. The first is…
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Cytokinetics: Collaboration with Astellas is Expanded and Will Bring in $65 Million of Cash (CYTK, $10.45, Buy)

Overview of Expanded Collaboration

Cytokinetics and Astellas announced on July 27th that they had expanded their collaboration for the development of…
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Cytokinetics: Phase 2 Trial of CK-2127107 in COPD Begins (CYTK, $9.37, Buy)

Overview of COPD

Cytokinetics announced today that it is beginning a phase 2 trial of CK-2127107 in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease…
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Cytokinetics: Amgen’s R&D Chief Expresses Great Optimism About Omecamtiv Mecarbil for Treating Congestive Heart Failure (CYTK, Buy, $6.53)

Purpose of This Report

I have written frequently about omecamtiv mecarbil, Cytokinetics’ extremely promising new drug for congestive heart failure…
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Cytokinetics: Comments on the Patent Situation of Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, Buy, $6.40)

Introduction

If you read my note of yesterday, there can be no question that Amgen views omecamtiv mecarbil as a major…
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Cytokinetics: Extremely Encouraging News from Amgen on Omecamtiv (CYTK, Buy, $6.54)

Introduction

The Cowen conference in Boston is going on this week. I consider Cowen to have the best and broadest coverage…
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Cytokinetics: An Update Based on CEO Robert Blum’s Comments at BIO CEO Conference on February 8, 2016 (CYTK, Buy, $6.57)

Summary

I attended the BIO CEO conference in New York City on February 8 and 9. I am writing a series…
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Why Biotechnology Investing is So Difficult: Cytokinetics is a Case Study (free article)

Overview

I just finished publishing a detailed article for subscribers to my website detailing my view that Cytokinetics offers asymmetric upside potential.…
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Cytokinetics: An Update on Potential (Highly Probable) Phase 3 Trial of Omecamtiv Mecarbil in Heart Failure (CYTK, Buy, $11.29)

Purpose of this Report

I listened carefully to CEO Robert Blum speaking at the Piper Jaffrey conference on December 1. This…
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Cytokinetics: I Predict Amgen Will Proceed to Phase 3 Trials with Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, Buy, $10.82)

Investment Thesis

I continue with my long standing buy recommendation on the stock. I think a Buy at this level is…
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Cytokinetics: Positive Topline Results of Omecamtiv in COSMIC-HF Trial Are a Major Positive (CYTK, Buy, $7.04)

There is a very high probability that omecamtiv will now be taken into phase 3 development. I await Amgen’s decision…
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Cytokinetics: Comments on Sharp Price Decline After 2Q, 2015 Conference Call (CYTK, Buy, $6.28)

Key Points

The reasons for my buy recommendation on CYTK as detailed in previous reports remain the same. There was nothing…
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Cytokinetics: Phase 3 Trial of Tirasemtiv Has Begun (CYTK, Buy, $7.17)

Cytokinetics announced on July 14, 2015 the start of the phase 3 trial of tirasemtiv in ALS-VITALITY-ALS (Ventilatory Investigation of…
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Cytokinetics: Phase 3 Trial for Tirasemtiv About to Begin with Topline Results Possible in 2H, 2016; Successful Outcome Could Make the Stock a Homerun (CYTK, $6.35, Buy, For Paid Subscribers)

Introduction

Management has recently provided details of the upcoming phase 3 trial of tirasemtiv in the treatment of ALS; this trial…
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Cytokinetics: Takeaways from Recent R&D Day and Reiteration of Buy (CYTK, $6.14, Buy)

Investment Overview

I find the recent stock weakness in Cytokinetics perplexing. The Company has a market value of about $300 million…
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Cytokinetics: Update and Reiteration of My Buy Recommendation (CYTK, $5.54, Buy)

Investment Thesis in Brief
By the end of 2015, Cytokinetics (CYTK) will have tirasemtiv in a phase 3 trial in ALS…
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Comments on Antares, Agenus, Cytokinetics, Discovery Laboratories and ZS Pharma

SmithOnStocks Mailbox
April 28, 2015
A Quick Take on Recent Events
If you have a question for the mailbox, contact me.
Purpose of this…
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Cytokinetics: Updates on Tirasemtiv and Omecamtiv (CYTK, Buy, $7.77)

Investment Overview
I have listened to management presentations at recent brokerage conferences and have then followed up with questions. There are…
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Cytokinetics: Key Catalysts for 2015 Strongly Support My Buy Recommendation (CYTK, $7.85)

Catalysts for 2015
During the conference call on February 12, 2015 discussing 4Q, 2014 results Cytokinetics discussed key catalysts for 2015…
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Cytokinetics: Takeaways from January 5, 2014 Conference Call (CYTK, Buy, $7.82)

Cytokinetics held a conference call on January 5th in which they added some detail on the collaboration with Astellas on…
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Cytokinetics: With the Stock Up 63% in the Last Seven Trading Days, What Do We Do Now? (CYTK, $8.01, Buy)

The strength followed the announcement of a new collaboration agreement with Astellas on CYTK’s unique skeletal muscle activators program
This added…
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Cytokinetics (CYTK, Buy $5.52) New Collaboration with Astellas on CK-2127107 Greatly Improves Investment Outlook

This deal adds a third leg to the development pipeline at Cytokinetics along with omecamtiv for congestive heart failure and…
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Cytokinetics: An Update on Tirasemtiv and Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, Buy, $3.67)

Investment Thinking

Cytokinetics could announce the decision on whether it will advance tirasemtiv into a pivotal phase 3 trial by the…
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Cytokinetics Is Planning for a Phase 3 Trial in 2015 for Tirasemtiv in ALS (CYTK, $3.26, Buy)

Cytokinetics (CYTK) has announced   that it is planning a phase 3 trial for tirasemtiv using sustained vital capacity-SVC- as…
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Cytokinetics: More Thoughts on the Potential for a Phase 3 Trial of Tirasemtiv in ALS (CYTK, Buy, $4.20)

Investment Thesis

In listening carefully to Cytokinetics’ (CYTK) comments over the last three months, I am convinced that the Company will…
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Cytokinetics: Tirasemtiv May Still Be Successfully Developed in ALS (CYTK, Buy, $4.77)

I think that there is a strong possibility that Cytokinetics (to the surprise of Wall Street) could announce sometime in…
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Cytokinetics: I Think That the Company May Decide to Do A Phase 3 Trial with Tirasemtiv (CYTK, $4.70, Buy, For Subscribers Only)

Overview on Clinical Status of Tirasemtiv

I believe that Cytokinetics (CYTK) will decide to move tirasemtiv into phase 3 registration trials…
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Cytokinetics: There Yet May Be a Path Forward to Develop Tirasemtiv in ALS (CYTK, Buy, $4.49, Paid Subscribers)

Overview

Cytokinetics held a conference call on the results of the BENEFIT-ALS trial on the morning of April 30. The Company…
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Cytokinetics Announces that Tirasemtiv Phase 2b Trial in ALS Failed (CYTK, Buy, $5.01)

Cytokinetics announced that tirasemtiv failed to reach the primary endpoint in the phase 2b BENEFIT-ALS trial in ALS. The mean…
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Thoughts on the Market Correction in Biotechnology Stocks

This Has Been a Tough Correction

The recent sharp market correction and rotation out of growth stocks like biotechnology and technology…
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Cytokinetics: The Critical Phase 2b Results for Tirasemtiv Should be Released on April 29th (CYTK, $8.88, Buy, Paid Subscribers Only)

Phase 2b Data on Tirasemtiv will be Presented on April 29th

Cytokinetics has an extremely important binary event upcoming as the…
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SmithOnStocks Mailbox February 25, 2014

I have found that there are some very smart people out there who have interesting questions and perspectives concerning my…
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Cytokinetics: Institutional Investors Give BENEFIT-ALS Potential Results a Vote of Confidence (CYTK, $9.06)

Cytokinetics (CYTK) announced that it has completed an equity offering in which it issued 4.375 million shares at a price…
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Cytokinetics: An In-Depth Look at the Potential for Success of Tirasemtiv in the BENEFIT-ALS Trial in ALS Patients (CYTK, $9.50) (Subscribers Only)

Purpose of This Report

The biggest clinical trial event in all of biotechnology for 2014 could be the reporting of phase…
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The BIO CEO Conference: Highlights from the Meeting and New Investment Perspectives (Subscribers Only)

Back From BIO CEO Conference

I have returned from spending two days at the BIO CEO conference at the Waldorf Astoria…
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San Francisco Trip Is the Basis for a Preview of 2014 (Subscribers Only)

What SmithOnStocks Is All About
It is traditional at the start of the year to go over stock picks for the…
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Thoughts on the Price Surge of Cytokinetics (CYTK, $8.75)

Cytokinetics has been on a tear this year. Is started the year at $6.72 and closed yesterday (January 10) at…
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Cytokinetics: 2014 Will Bring Critical Data Readouts on Tirasemtiv and Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, $6.03)

Key Takeaways From 3Q, 2013 Conference Call
The BENEFIT-ALS trial of tirasemtiv has nearly completed enrollment and Cytokinetics (CYTK) believes that…
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Cytokinetics: Presentation at Heart Failure Society Suggests Myocardial Infarctions Are Not Likely Associated with Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, $7.61)

Investment Background
Cytokinetics and Amgen first presented data from the ATOMIC HF trial at the European Society of Cardiology Congress (ESC)…
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Cytokinetics: Clinical Investigators’ Take on ATOMIC-AHF Trial Results (CYTK, $8.01)

Introduction
Cytokinetics issued a press release on the results of the phase II trial of ATOMIC-AHF and then held a conference…
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Cytokinetics: Previewing the Release of Data from the ATOMIC-AHF Trial of Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, $9.95)

Investment Overview

In my last note, I wrote that I thought the ATOMIC-AHF, phase IIb trial of the intravenous dosage form…
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Cytokinetics: A Preview of Key Upcoming Clinical Trial Results (CYTK, $10.17)

Introduction
This report is an update on my thinking on Cytokinetics. It should be read in conjunction with earlier reports, especially…
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Cytokinetics: Another Positive Deal for Shareholders, This Time with Astellas (CYTK, $11.81)

Cytokinetics (CYTK) has completed its second meaningful deal in two weeks. Today they announced a deal with Astellas (ALPMY) and…
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Cytokinetics (CYTK, $1.40) Receives a Vote of Confidence from Amgen

Cytokinetics (CYTK) has announced an expansion of the partnering agreement with Amgen (AMGN) for omecamtiv mecarbil, the Company’s lead product…
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