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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Northwest Biotherapeutics: Market Research Firm Evaluate Pharma Projects 2020 Worldwide Sales of $2.0 billion for DCVax-L (NWBO, Buy, $5.92)

One of the basic charges made against me by Richard Pearson and other short sellers is that they maintain that DCVax-L is a hoax and no credible analyst thinks that the product has any possibility for success. Pearson maintains that there is only a small group of paid promoters who have anything positive to say about DCVax-L and that there is no possibility that the drug could be a success.

One of my subscribers has just sent me a report that was put out by a marketing research firm called Evaluate Pharma. This is a 39 page report called World Preview 2014, Outlook to 2020. I have had no prior experience with Evaluate Pharma that would allow me to judge the quality of their work. In looking at their website, they appear to be credible as they claim to have 150 employees and 85 analysts engaged in their work on the world pharmaceutical industry. They seem quite credible although Pearson will probably find a way to tie them to a promotion scheme.

The 39 page report called World Preview 2014, Outlook to 2020 can be accessed free by registering on their website. The link is The report appears to be a very much in-depth and well researched report on various measures of the world pharmaceutical industry. On page 14 of that report, there is a section that is called “The 20 Most Valuable R&D Projects Ranked by Net Present Value”. Not surprisingly, BMY’s nivolumab is ranked first by Evaluate Pharma which estimates 2020 sales at $6.0 billion and calculates a net present value for the product as $23.1 billion.

What was surprising to me is that Evaluate Pharma ranks DCVax-L as the seventh most promising research project in the world. It projects 2020 sales of $2.0 billion and calculates a net present value of $5.5 billion. This would correspond to about $103 per current share of NWBO. I cannot provide any information at this time on estimates and assumptions that were made to come up with these numbers. I cannot endorse them at this time.

This assessment by Evaluate Pharma does not mean that DCVax-L will be successfully developed. Drug development is high risk and I have constantly represented in my reports there is a significant risk that DCVax-L will fail in its clinical trial either because the drug is ineffective or the clinical trials are poorly designed. This is true of all drug development projects. I am not saying “Hey look at this Evaluate Pharma Report, it means that DCVax-L is a slam dunk for blockbuster status”. I would never make that claim after 30 years of scars in following biotechnology.

What I am saying is that I am not alone in my hope that DCVax-L could be a significant product. Other credible sources also believe that it has blockbuster potential.

Tagged as , , + Categorized as Company Reports


  1. I am glad you are not intimidated by the many negative pieces that have been written about you and in particular against NWBO and its treatment plan……We will not know much more until the results are released and the decisions made about the future effectiveness of both “L” and “D”.
    Until then, we keep the dialogue open and honest and enjoy everyone who contributes their sincere opinions to the new and revolutionary treatment for solid tumor cancers….Thank you not growing weary and lets hope that NWBO will continue to post the results of “D” as they become available from the investigator at MDA. I hope they were not scared off….This story has just begun and I am
    hoping for a happy ending for the people who are suffering from cancer and for investors who are
    trying to support this company by holding their shares….Wait and see as you kindly said….cheers

  2. It has been a trying time. The shorts have enormous power to control both opinion and stock trading in the near term, but they don’t control clinical trial results.

  3. Lawrence Braverman says:

    I’d never heard of “EvaluatePharma”. I googled them, but everything I got came FROM them; I couldn’t find anything ABOUT them from a third party, that they didn’t originate, but when I tried to register anyway with them I got:

    “A confirmation email will be sent so please use an active email address.

    Format is not valid Thank you for your registration request. Unfortunately, we can not register users with public domain or ISP-provided email address. Please re-enter your registration details, but with a company or private domain email address. ”

    Curious… perhaps they’re a blind for PLA intelligence looking for somebody new to hack…

  4. @ july 17 post. I had no problem downloading the report.


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