Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

DCVax-L Impressive Phase 3 Results Are Validated by Independent, Expert Scientists and Physicians; Supports Strong Upward Stock Move

The final results of the phase 3 trial of DCVax-L were first released on May 10 at the New York Academy of Sciences conference. They were extremely encouraging showing that glioblastoma (GBM) patients treated with DCVax-L plus standard of care experienced an impressive increase in survival when compared to what is now achieved with standard of care alone. However, trial results reported by a company are always viewed with caution until they are validated by a peer reviewed article in a respected medical journal. Such a peer reviewed article was published on November 17, 2022 in the prestigious journal JAMA Oncology.

Selection of an article for publication indicates that JAMA Oncology believes that it is a significant medical advance. All research articles submitted are first reviewed by an in-house team of expert editors. Following this internal review, if editors are excited and decide to proceed with a paper, they then select appropriate independent peer reviewers. A research article is usually peer reviewed by three or more outside clinical or subject-based experts who analyze the clinical results and one or more statistical reviewers who scrub the statistical analysis plan. The peer review process works to improve submitted articles while preventing any overstating of results from reaching physicians and the public.

Peer reviewers make suggestions for improvements, critique the analysis, and provide recommendations to the authors and the editors. Each published JAMA manuscript, then,  benefits from hundreds of hours of work by editors, independent physician experts, statistical experts, manuscript editors, illustrators, proofreaders, and production personnel, who work to ensure that every paper meets exacting standards. It is an intensive interaction between the reviewers and the Company. The collective aim is to present the information in the most balanced and informative way. NWBO management has remarked that the peer review process was intense and beneficial in making the article the best that it could be. For investors, this is a validation, second only to regulatory approval that the DCVax-L data is fair, balanced and accurate

The May 10 presentation at the New York Academy of Sciences was also peer reviewed. Finally, the phase 3 trial data was selected for an oral presentation in a plenary session at the Society of Neuro-Oncology on November 20, 2020. This is the premier conference for physicians and health professional who participate in the management of brain tumors. With all of this impressive validation, I conclude and I think almost all investors would agree that DCVax-L has the promise of being a major advance in the treatment of glioblastoma and a stunning accomplishment for tiny Northwest Biotherapeutics.

With All of This Incredibly Positive News, the Stock Crashes

Let me review these key catalysts for Northwest and DCVax-L.

• May 10, 2022- Topline data from the phase 3 trial of DCVax-L was presented publicly for the first time at the New York Academy of Sciences.
• November 17, 2022- JAMA Oncology published a peer review article on the phase 3 trial validating the results.
• November 20, 2022-    Dr, Linda Liau, a distinguished neuro-surgeon, presented the results at the Society of Neuro-Oncology

With these explosively positive catalysts, one would have expected the stock to trade up dramatically. Instead, it crashed. On May 9, 2022, the day prior to the NYAS presentation, the stock closed at $1.82. At 12:40 PM on May 10, shortly after the NYAS presentation ended, the stock traded down to $0.38, a staggering 79% decrease in price. It closed the day at $0.75. The stock closed on November 22, 2022 at $0.86. This was 59% below the closing price on May 9, 2022. Never in my 40 years of experience on Wall Street have I ever seen such disconnection between fundamentals of a Company and its stock price. Clearly, there is something rotten going on in the stock market.

I Believe Northwest Has Been Hit Repeatedly a By Massive Stock Manipulation Scheme

My hypothesis is that this paradoxical stock price crash was orchestrated by a group of hedge funds and market makers who I call the wolf pack. They orchestrated a bold and frightening effort to make investors believe that all of this unbelievably positive news was somehow negative by crashing the stock price. This manipulation of NWBO’s stock price was extreme, but in a less dramatic form this type of manipulation is a routine, daily practice used by the wolfpack to target many, many companies. This scheme relies on:

• Illegal naked shorting
• Dark pools
• High frequency trading that can perform thousands of trade in a minute
• The use of computer algorithms that use tactics like spoofing to steadily walk the price of a stock price down through the use of fictitious offerings, which is illegal
• A steady stream of negative comments on social media outlets by wolfpack employees making up all kinds of stuff to make good news appear bad. This is intended to provide cover for the illegal trading.

Some people just can’t believe this is true and of course, I can present no hard evidence to prove my hypothesis. However, a close look at the trading of NWBO on May 10 certainly is consistent with my claim.

May 9

Stock closed at $1.82

May 10

9:30 am   Opened at $1.27, down 30% before there was any news about DCVax-L from the NYAS presentation

11:10 am  Price was $1.24 as the NYAS presentation of phase 3 topline data began

11:40 am  By the end of the presentation the price was $0.75. This was after the presenter of the paper reported that the phase 3 trial showed extremely encouraging results in reaching the primary endpoint of mOS in ndGBM with a p-value of <0.002 and the secondary endpoint of mOS in rGBM with a p-value of <0.001. He stated that DCVax-L was a major medical advance in the treatment of GBM.

12:40 pm Low price of the day was $0.38

4:00 pm Stock closed at $.75

Sometime in the afternoon, Adam Feuerstein issued a report on Stat News (his employer) claiming that the trial had failed to reach its endpoint of progression free survival (PFS). This can only be described as a blatant and deliberate lie. PFS was not even a secondary endpoint in the trial. The F-stein report was circulated widely by his employer Stat News to Reuters and other media outlets who based only on this report (they did not corroborate F-stein’s report) dutifully echoed his disinformation. Despite repeated requests and after being  shown indisputable evidence that PFS was not the end point, F-stein and Stat News did not retract the story, They doubled down by essentially printing the same story on November 21 after the JAMA Oncology article and SNO presentation.

In looking at the above price behavior, it is clear that the stock manipulation scheme kicked into gear at the market opening before anyone had any idea of what was going to be presented. Then as the presentation went on the stock was consistently under pressure even though the presentation can only be viewed as extremely positive. The number of market makers for Northwest is usually about 6, but on May 10, there were 13 market makers; more market makers facilitates shorting. Hmmm. There were 77 million shares traded on May 10 and I believe that based on past experience that 90% or more could have been counterfeit shares (created through naked shorting). Very, very little of this volume was actual buying or selling by investors. It was almost all computers collaborating with other computers to crash the stock. Normal volume for NWBO had been running at 1 million or so shares per day.  My sources suggest that the shorts probably committed about $30 million of capital to create the impression that the data presented was disappointing and drive the stock price down.

Later in the afternoon, the F-stein report was issued. Shortly thereafter, the usual cast of hedge fund bloggers writing anonymously under pseudonyms lit up the chat rooms echoing the claim that the trial failed to reach the primary endpoint of median progression free survival. This social media blitz could be pointed to as a reason for the stock collapse providing cover for the shorts. In actuality, the actual damage to the stock price had already occurred.

The May 10, 2022 attack was emulated on November 21. The peer reviewed JAMA Oncology article was published on November 17 and the SNO presentation was made on November 20. The wolfpack then launched the attack on November 21. This produced the same effect as seen on May 10. The stock price closed at $1.19 on November 18, the last trading day before the November 21 attack. On November 21 the stock closed at $0.99 and on November 22 closed at $0.86. The latter was a 28% decrease in stock price from November 18. Once again, the stock crashed following the release of very encouraging news that should have had a very positive effect on the stock. The bad guys scored again, Adam Feuerstein published another Stat News article on November 21, again claiming that the trial failed based on his imaginary PFS endpoint. This was pretty much the same report he published on May 10 with a little disparagement of the JAMA Oncology and SNO presentation mixed in; classic F-stein gaslighting.

What Motivates the Wolfpack?

Why would the wolfpack, given the promising DCVax-L data, not join in the hope that this drug will extend the lives of desperately ill cancer patients? Even if they believe there are reasons to be skeptical on some points, there is every reason to hope that the drug will work and who in the world want it not to work. Anyway, why would the wolfpack bother with a bulletin board stock selling at less than a dollar.

So who are these people?  From my career as an analyst, I have dealt with several hedge fund personnel who are part of the wolfpack. I can say this. They are very smart people deeply skilled in biotechnology who have enormous resources in terms of money, people and political influence. However, they have been involved in this manipulation of NWBO for around eight years and while I have no objective proof, I believe that they could be short as much as a billion shares. Early on, they convinced themselves that DCVax-L had no chance to succeed and felt they could drive NWBO into bankruptcy so that they would never have to cover their ever increasing and massive short position. Now, faced with losing $1 billion for every $1 increase in NWBO stock price they have a lot at stake. If NWBO experienced a GameStop type short squeeze, tens of billions could be lost and some hedge funds might even go out of business. In short, the wolfpack is desperate to keep the stock price from increasing.

Can The Wolfpack Attack Be Blunted?

I desperately hope so, but I don’t know. I think this is one of the biggest criminal schemes on the planet. However, there have been many attempts in the past to stop the wolfpack that have all failed because of the inability to document the stock trading and prove it is part of conspiracy to manipulate stock prices; this is necessary in order to gain standing in the courts.