Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Full Year Sales of Andexxa were Impressive but there was a Troubling Drop in Sequential Sales in US in 4Q, 2019 Portola held a conference call on January 9, 2020 to pre-announce disappointing 4Q sales for Andexxa in the US. Following its launch in May of 2019, Andexxa recorded US sales of $24 million in […]

Key Points: The sales model presented in this report projects sales for Portola of $119, $264 and $402 million for 2019, 2020 and 2021. While the numbers presented in this model appear to be precise, the assumptions used in putting it together involve a lot of judgments (guesswork) and are imprecise. You should take the […]

Overview The investment story for Portola is virtually 100% based on the sales ramp for Andexxa. Skepticism and/ or uncertainty have been running high because new drug product launches in general are slow and disappointing and this is particularly true for hospital products like Andexxa. I have been taken aback at the poor stock performance. […]

Overview of 1Q, 2019 Results I was shocked to see Portola trading down about  $5.00 in following the release of 1Q, 2019 results. Almost all of the stock price relates to sales of Andexxa so one would think that the sharp drop was somehow the result of disappointing Andexxa sales. Not so. Consensus Street expectations […]

Portola Pharmaceuticals announced last Friday that the European Commission granted conditional Marketing Authorization for Ondexxya (andexanet alfa). In the US, the product is called Andexxa; it was approved in May 2018. In March, 2019 management said that it expected this EU approval in May. As in the US, the approval was conditional and was based […]

Key Conclusion The outlook for Portola’s stock price in 2019 and 2020 will almost certainly driven by the sales progress of Andexxa. At this early stage in the launch, there is considerable uncertainty and guesswork involved in projecting sales. My preliminary estimates are that sales increase from $24 million in 2019 to $120 million in […]

Overview This report focuses narrowly on the New England Journal of Medicine article. If you would like a more thorough discussion on the fundamentals of Portola I suggest that you refer to two recent reports. Key Points Andexxa (andexanet) is the only approved treatment for reversal of anticoagulant effects of Factor Xa inhibitor drugs like […]

Investment Thesis in Brief Andexxa is the only approved product for treating severe bleeds (sometimes life threatening) caused by the Factor Xa inhibitors, principally Xarelto and Eliquis. Current standard of care (SOC) treatments have scant clinical data and are not approved by the FDA. Impotantly, Andexxa inhibits 90% of Factor Xa activity in two minutes […]

Portola received approval for the Prior Approval Supplement (PAS) for the Gen 2 manufacturing process for AndexXa on the PDUFA date of December 31, 2018. Management had expressed confidence in approval but in dealing with the FDA, it is never over until it’s over. AndexXa was launched in June 2018 using the inefficient Gen 1 […]

The launch of AndexXa is still in an early stage and there is considerable uncertainty about the sales trajectory in 2019 and beyond. This report focuses on issues that largely will determine sales