Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Key Conclusions I believe that there is a 95% probability that Makena will remain on the market and only a 5% chance that it could be withdrawn. I think that results of PROLONG will be incorporated into the Makena label and the FDA may or may not ask for another trial. There is no approved […]

Key Points: Xyosted prescription trends remain impressive and based on audit data for the last 11 weeks, there has been an acceleration in the trend line. My model has slightly increased its 2019 sales estimate from $18.8 million as shown in my August 27 report to $19.4 million and for 2020 from $53.9 to $56.8 […]

Investment Thesis I have seen seven plus months of data on prescription trends for Xyosted as estimated by the prescription auditing service Symphony. My confidence is strong that Xyosted is experiencing a very solid launch and is on its way to becoming a major success. I have developed a model that uses the Symphony data […]

Introduction I have heard encouraging comments on my recently announced approach of doing shorter, less pedantic reports on new companies. This is so much so that I am extending this approach to companies that I have actively covered for some time and in this case Antares Pharma. For a Martian with no knowledge of Antares, […]

Investment Thesis The cornerstone of my positive investment thesis for Antares is Xyosted, which was fully launched in January 2019. While it is early, I believe that the prescription trends seen over the last six months strongly indicate that the launch will be a success. In this report, I explain the methodology, I used to […]

Investment Thesis Recently, I have received a couple of sarcastic comments to the effect that this stock has gone nowhere for the last five or so years and you have consistently recommended it. Why don’t you just admit were wrong and move on. I share the frustration. I buy stocks that I recommend and hold […]

Investment Thesis The cornerstone of my positive investment thesis for Antares is Xyosted, which was fully launched in January 2019. While it is very early, I believe that the prescription trends seen over the last four plus months strongly indicate that the launch will be a success. Xyosted is Antares’ second wholly owned and marketed […]

Introduction and Overview I have obtained access to weekly prescription trends for Xyosted which I will publish periodically. Marketing began on December 14, 2018 and the data in this report runs through the week ending May 3, 2019. This audit data reports prescriptions as follows: NRx- the number of new prescriptions filled RRx-refilled prescriptions TRx- […]

Introduction On Friday, the PROLONG clinical study was released that showed no difference in outcomes between Makena and placebo. This was a major surprise and disappointment and caused a sharp decline in the stock price of AMAG and to a lesser extent Antares. This note goes over my preliminary thinking on the possible outcome of […]

Antares just reported 4Q, 2018 sales and earnings. I will do a more detailed analysis of the Company sometime after the release of the 10-K in mid-March. However, I wanted to make a brief comment about the guidance that the Company provided for 2019 sales growth. Antares now has two wholly owned products marketed with […]