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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Post archive for ‘LinkedIn’

Repligen: A Business Update and Reiteration of Buy (RGEN, Buy, $34.11)

Investment Overview and Thesis A Long Buy Recommendation of Mine I first recommended Repligen in an initiation report in December 2012. At the time and on many occasions since, I have described its business model as being one of the very best I have seen. On a macro-basis its business sail is driven by the […]

Cytokinetics: Insights into Corporate Collaborations, Tirasemtiv, CK-107 and Hospitalization Caused by Heart Failure (CYTK, Buy, $11.25)

Introduction I was just going though the most recently published slide deck of Cytokinetics and found some slides that I thought were an interesting way of conveying information on corporate collaborations, the clinical status of CK-107, tirasemtiv and the serious unmet medical need for treatment of patients hospitalized with heart failure. None of these are […]

Kite Pharma: Novartis and Kite File for Regulatory Approval of Their CAR-T Products; I Do Not Believe That KITE Has a Meaningful First Mover Advantage (KITE, Neutral, $82.19)

Key Points: Novartis will almost certainly gain approval for CTL-019 in r/r pediatric ALL early in 4Q, 2017. This would represent the first ever approval for a CAR-T product. Kite says that it will receive approval for Axi-Cel ((axicabtagene ciloleucel)) in r/r DLBCL and launch in the US in 2017 and will have first mover […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics: Is There Any Chance for DCVax-L to be Successful in the Phase 3 Trial? (NWBO, Buy, $0.24)

Acronyms Used in this Report SOC: The standard of care in newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients is surgical resection followed by treatment with radiation and the chemotherapy drug temozolomide PFS: Progression free survival is the time from which the surgery is performed until the tumor begins to regrow mPFS: The median time at which half of […]

Antares: Pipeline is Bursting with Late Stage Products (ATRS, $2.77, Buy)

Key Points: Antares has an impressive portfolio of seven new products that could lead to explosive growth over the next four years. I am projecting that revenues of five partnered products could increase from $17.0 million in 2016 to $142.0 million in 2021 (a nearly five fold increase) and that revenues from two wholly owned […]

Cytokinetics: A Look at the Clinical Trial Programs Underway (CYTK, Buy, $13.00)

The Investment Thesis Is Based on Three Drugs in Late Stage Development In partnership with Amgen, Cytokinetics has advanced omecamtiv mecarbil into phase 3 development for congestive heart failure; topline data is projected for January 2021. Without a partner, Cytokinetics has progressed tirasemtiv into a late phase 3 ALS trial; topline data is projected for […]

Cytokinetics: Estimating a Potential 2025 Price Target of $220 Based Only on the Potential for Tirasemtiv (CYTK, Buy, $13.00) and Ignoring Omecamtiv Mecarbil and CK-107

Key Points: Cytokinetics is likely to report results from the phase 3 VITALITY-ALS trial in early December 2017. I believe that this trial has a good chance of hitting the primary endpoint of sustained vital capacity (SVC) and gaining approval. The economic consequences for CYTK shareholders are enormous. In this report, I estimate a 2025 […]

Cytokinetics: Estimating a Potential 2025 Price Target of $172 Based Only on the Potential for Omecamtiv Mecarbil and Ignoring Tirasemtiv and CK-107 (CYTK, Buy, $13.00)

Key Points: Amgen and Cytokinetics have begun enrolling the phase 3 GALACTIC-HF trial of omecamtiv mecarbil in congestive heart failure (CHF). Topline data is not expected until January 2021. However, in the event of strong efficacy, the trial could potentially be halted at an interim look in 2020. Between now and then there will be […]

Kite Pharma: Analysis of Six Month Data from ZUMA-1 That Led to 40% Price Increase (KITE, Neutral, $72.53)

Report Preface In the event that you are unfamiliar with acronyms used widely in this report such as CAR-T, DLBCL, TFL, ORR, CR etc. I would suggest that before going further that you click on this link for definitions. I often put what I consider to be key points, the investment opinion and target price at the […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics and Agenus: What Are The Implications for These Companies in the Aftermath of Two Recent Cancer Vaccine Trial Failures? (NWBO, $0.38, Buy) (AGEN, $3.99, Buy)

Two Recent Cancer Vaccine Trial Failures Spurred this Report On February 22, 2017, Argos reported that the Data Monitoring Committee for the phase 3 ADAPT trial of its cancer vaccine AGS-003 in combination with Sutent in metastatic renal cell carcinoma recommended that the trial should be discontinued. Following an interim analysis, the DMC concluded that […]