Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Investment Thesis Recently, I have received a couple of sarcastic comments to the effect that this stock has gone nowhere for the last five or so years and you have consistently recommended it. Why don’t you just admit were wrong and move on. I share the frustration. I buy stocks that I recommend and hold […]

Investment Thesis The cornerstone of my positive investment thesis for Antares is Xyosted, which was fully launched in January 2019. While it is very early, I believe that the prescription trends seen over the last four plus months strongly indicate that the launch will be a success. Xyosted is Antares’ second wholly owned and marketed […]

Overview Marnix Bosch, Chief Technical Officer of Northwest Biotherapeutics, discussed three broad topics at ASCO on Sunday June 2, 2019. Factors that will determine when we might see the all-important topline data from the phase 3 trial of DCVax-L in newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). The hypothesized mode of action of DCVax Direct and plans […]

Acronyms Used Frequently in This Report DTCC: The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) provides clearing and settlement services to the US financial markets that handle the exchange of nearly all securities and cash on behalf of buyers and sellers. It is also a central securities depository providing central custody of almost all US securities. […]

Overview In previous blogs I traced the history of stock trading from the 1960s when stock certificates and cash were physically exchanged to settle trades to the paper free, totally electronic system that exists today. Instead of owning stock certificates, we now own digital entries located somewhere in the vaults of the inscrutable Depository Trust […]

Key Points: I am projecting that total sales will increase from $19.6 million in 2018 to $31.0 million in 2019 and $83.9 million in 2024. This is a fourfold increase in sales over the 2018 to 2024 period. Even though these numbers appear to be aggressive, I have tried to go out of my way […]

Introduction and Overview I have obtained access to weekly prescription trends for Xyosted which I will publish periodically. Marketing began on December 14, 2018 and the data in this report runs through the week ending May 3, 2019. This audit data reports prescriptions as follows: NRx- the number of new prescriptions filled RRx-refilled prescriptions TRx- […]

Overview of 1Q, 2019 Results I was shocked to see Portola trading down about  $5.00 in following the release of 1Q, 2019 results. Almost all of the stock price relates to sales of Andexxa so one would think that the sharp drop was somehow the result of disappointing Andexxa sales. Not so. Consensus Street expectations […]

Key Points: Trial missed achieving statistical significance on primary endpoint of slow vital capacity Still, key opinion leaders when looking at the totality of data are strongly supportive of launching a phase 3 trial Management has not yet issued guidance, but my guess is that the trial could begin in late 2019 and conclude in […]

Portola Pharmaceuticals announced last Friday that the European Commission granted conditional Marketing Authorization for Ondexxya (andexanet alfa). In the US, the product is called Andexxa; it was approved in May 2018. In March, 2019 management said that it expected this EU approval in May. As in the US, the approval was conditional and was based […]