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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Archive for April, 2016

Antares: An Outstanding Product Pipeline Promises Dramatic Growth Through 2022 (ATRS, Buy, $0.92)

Investment Thesis in Brief If you like numbers, you will like this report. It is a very detailed analysis of the contribution to Antares sales and profits of 7 new products that will drive growth in coming years. As summarized in the following table, I am looking for Antares to roughly breakeven in 2017 and […]

Relypsa: Analyzing March Results of the Veltassa Launch (RLYP, Buy, $17.60)

Investment Perspective Investors are closely watching the launch progress of Veltassa following its December 2015 introduction. Medicare and managed care have set up barriers to prescribing that makes getting a prescription filled for a new drug laborious and time consuming and sometimes futile. With very few exceptions, most new product launches have disappointed investors to […]

Chimerix: An Intriguing Near Term and Long Term Outlook for the Stock (CMRX, Buy, $5.67)

Investment Thesis in Brief I am recommending purchase of Chimerix at the current price. The failure of brincidofovir in the phase 3 SUPPRESS trial for prevention of cytomegalovirus infections in hematopoietic stem cell patients has caused investors to write off the company and has resulted in a depressed stock price. To illustrate, I estimate that […]

Antares: Makena Has the Potential to Make a Very Significant Contribution to EPS (ATRS, $0.85. Buy)

Investment Thesis Investment Overview The launch of Otrexup has been extremely disappointing in contrast to my high expectations. Medac launched a competitive product Rasuvo shortly after Otrexup. It was my expectation that Medac would focus on educating physicians and expanding the market to the benefit of both products. In my experience, this has been the […]

Relypsa: Comments on Takeover Rumors

Reason for Report Relypsa shares surged from about $15.00 at 1 PM on Thursday April 7 to close at $24.34. This move was based on a report published by Reuters at 12:54 PM. What the Reuters News Article Said ‚ÄúRelypsa Inc., a U.S. maker of treatments for blood disorder hyperkalemia, is exploring a sale following […]

Discovery Laboratories: Clinical Trial Data over Next Year Could Validate the Promise of Aerosurf (DSCO, Buy, $1.60)

Investment Overview The Stock Market Has Written off Aerosurf The current stock market valuation for Discovery Laboratories of $13 million (8 million shares times $1.60) assigns virtually zero probability for Aerosurf being successfully developed and commercialized. Stocks selling at such a micro-cap market valuation are usually dismissed out of hand by investors as there is […]