Archive for November, 2019
Cryoport: A Model Projecting How Commercially Approved Products Supported by Cryoport Will Drive Growth Through 2024 (CYRX, Buy, $15.12)
Investment Perspective The main revenue driver for Cryoport from 2015 to 2019 came from providing cryogenic shipping services to companies conducting clinical trials preparatory to seeking regulatory approval. However, this began to change in 1Q, 2018 as regulatory approvals were gained for two commercial products, the CAR-T drugs Kymriah and Yescarta. These were supported by […]
Antares Pharma: Highlights from Presentation at Jefferies Healthcare Conference: (ATRS, Buy, $4.79)
Purpose of Report I just listened to the presentation by Antares at the Jefferies conference in London on Wednesday, November 20 and this report is a summary of key points that I heard on the call. I am in the process of coming up with my sales and earnings model for 2020 and beyond. There […]
Northwest Biotherapeutics: Company is Closing in on Unblinding of the Phase 3 Trial of DCVax-L in GBM That Could Lead to a Cascade of Important Follow-On Events (NWBO, Buy, $0.22)
Key Points In the third quarter 10-Q regulatory filing, it was disclosed that the draft form of the trial’s Statistical Analysis Plan (SAP) has been finalized for the phase 3 trial of DCVax-L in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). This followed lengthy and extensive work on the part of independent statisticians and the distinguished Scientific Advisory Board. […]
Antares Pharmaceuticals: Projecting Very Strong Growth in Xyosted Sales for 2020, 2021 and 2022 (ATRS, Buy, $3.89)
Key Points In my sales and earnings model for 2020, I will be using a working estimate of $53.6 million for sales of Xyosted in 2020. My working estimate is lower than two alternative scenarios laid out in this report. In Scenario 1, I arrive at a sales estimate of $70.3 million for 2020 and […]
Portola: Detailed Spreadsheet Projecting Sales and Earnings Through 4Q, 2021 (PTLA, Buy, $28.00)
Key Points: The sales model presented in this report projects sales for Portola of $119, $264 and $402 million for 2019, 2020 and 2021. While the numbers presented in this model appear to be precise, the assumptions used in putting it together involve a lot of judgments (guesswork) and are imprecise. You should take the […]
Antares Pharma: Quick Take on Implication of 3Q Results for Future Growth (ATRS, Buy, $3.70)
Key Points: Xyosted launch continues to impress. Projecting sales of $22 million in 2019 and over $50 million in 2019 AB rated generic to EpiPen royalties estimated at $6.2 million in 3Q. AB rated generic to Forteo could be launched this year. Potential is greater than AB rated generic to EpiPen. I predict that FDA […]