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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Archive for May, 2019

Part 6 Illegal Naked Shorting: The SEC’s Regulation SHO is Intended to Prevent Illegal Naked Shorting, But is Ineffective

Overview In previous blogs I traced the history of stock trading from the 1960s when stock certificates and cash were physically exchanged to settle trades to the paper free, totally electronic system that exists today. Instead of owning stock certificates, we now own digital entries located somewhere in the vaults of the inscrutable Depository Trust […]

Cryoport: Details of My Model for Sales for 2018 to 2024 (CYRX, Buy, $16.88)

Key Points: I am projecting that total sales will increase from $19.6 million in 2018 to $31.0 million in 2019 and $83.9 million in 2024. This is a fourfold increase in sales over the 2018 to 2024 period. Even though these numbers appear to be aggressive, I have tried to go out of my way […]

Antares: Tracking Report on Xyosted Prescriptions (ATRS, Buy, $2.88)

Introduction and Overview I have obtained access to weekly prescription trends for Xyosted which I will publish periodically. Marketing began on December 14, 2018 and the data in this report runs through the week ending May 3, 2019. This audit data reports prescriptions as follows: NRx- the number of new prescriptions filled RRx-refilled prescriptions TRx- […]

Portola: Andexxa Sales in 1Q, 2019 Were Encouraging and Yet the Stock HasTraded Down (PTLA, Buy, $30.16)

Overview of 1Q, 2019 Results I was shocked to see Portola trading down about  $5.00 in following the release of 1Q, 2019 results. Almost all of the stock price relates to sales of Andexxa so one would think that the sharp drop was somehow the result of disappointing Andexxa sales. Not so. Consensus Street expectations […]

Cytokinetics: Based on Data from Fortitude ALS Trial, Cytokinetics and Astellas Indicate They Will Undertake Phase 3 Trial of Reldesemtiv in ALS (CYTK, Buy, $9.30)

Key Points: Trial missed achieving statistical significance on primary endpoint of slow vital capacity Still, key opinion leaders when looking at the totality of data are strongly supportive of launching a phase 3 trial Management has not yet issued guidance, but my guess is that the trial could begin in late 2019 and conclude in […]