Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

I have previously written that the Veltassa launch sales figures are not likely to excite investors for some time. However, there is a major catalyst aside from this that could move the stock and that is the May 26th PDUFA date for ZS-9. Here is the issue. The mechanism of action of ZS-9 exchanges sodium […]

Investment Thesis for Relypsa The investment issues for Relypsa are complex. Its key drug Veltassa was launched in December of 2015 so that we are now about five months into the launch. Over the last several years it has become increasingly apparent that there is a new paradigm for drug introductions. Managed care has been […]

Investment Perspective Relypsa is about two months into the launch of Veltassa, its first product. There was a time (several years ago) when a new product launch coincided with excellent stock performance as one might expect. Paradoxically, now launches more often than not lead to disappointing stock performance. The most important reason for this in […]

Investment Thinking in Brief I am beginning coverage of Relypsa (RLYP) with a Buy recommendation. At this point in time, the stock is facing two major uncertainties. The launch of its first drug Veltassa (patiromer) began in December, 2015 so that the Company is fighting through all types of reimbursement and formulary access hurdles with managed […]

On Friday, November 9, 2015 Astra Zeneca entered into a definitive agreement to buy ZS Pharma in an all-cash tender offer for all outstanding shares of ZS Pharma common stock at a price of $90 per share. This values the Company at $2.7 billion or $2.5 billion if you subtract out $200 million of cash […]

SmithOnStocks Mailbox April 28, 2015 A Quick Take on Recent Events If you have a question for the mailbox, contact me. Purpose of this Note I have written extensively on Antares, Agenus, Cytokinetics and Discovery Laboratories. I have Buys on Antares, Agenus and Cytokinetics. I have a Hold on Discovery (what a troubled history), but […]

ZS Pharma Investment Thesis The Hyperkalemia Market Opportunity is Huge; There Are No Good Current Drugs The most important piece of the investment thesis for ZS Pharma is the sheer size of the opportunity for treating hyperkalemia. In my recent report, Effective Treatment of Hyperkalemia Promises to be a Multi-billion Opportunity, I provided a framework for […]

Key Points There are no effective treatment options for long term treatment of hyperkalemia (high potassium levels). My research suggests that the annual addressable market could be in the tens of billions of dollars in the US. Two emerging biotechnology companies have almost simultaneously developed effective drugs for hyperkalemia. Relypsa’s patiromer could be introduced in […]