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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Archive for January, 2013

Investment Implications of the Acquisition of MAP Pharmaceuticals by Allergan

Allergan to Acquire MAP Pharmaceuticals Allergan (AGN) has announced that it will acquire MAP Pharmaceuticals (MAPP) at a price of $25 per share which represents a 60% premium over the closing price of $15.58 on Tuesday, the day before the deal was announced. This values MAPP at just under $1 billion. The deal was obviously […]

Sangamo: Paradigm Shifting Approach to Gene Altering Leads to Unique Product Opportunities (SGMO, $9.56)

I have followed the progress of Sangamo for over seven years. I listened to a presentation by Edward Lanphier, CEO of Sangamo, during the JP Morgan conference in San Francisco in early January and then met with Edward and Liz Wolffe, Director of Corporate Communications. This note summarizes my key takeaways for 2013. Sangamo is […]

A.P. Pharma: PDUFA Date on APF530 Looms and I Am a Buyer (APPA.OB, $0.70)

Investment Opinion and Background I initiated coverage of A.P. Pharma (APPA.OB) in April of 2012 with a Buy. I am anticipating approval of its lead drug, APF530 at the March 27, 2013 PDUFA date. I believe that the company has successfully answered the CMC issues that resulted in a Complete Response Letter to its earlier […]

Cadence: Management Guides to a Near Doubling of Ofirmev Sales in 2013 (CADX, $5.23)

My confidence in my long standing Buy recommendation on Cadence (CADX) has been strengthened by its pre-announcement that 4Q, 2012 sales of Ofirmev surprised on the upside. For the last half year, I have been writing that the Ofirmev launch has gained traction. The evidence is becoming solid as the company pre-announced that 4Q, 2012 […]

MELA Sciences: In This Put Up or Shut Up Year, I Think the Company Will Succeed with its Launch of MelaFind (MELA, $1.70)

MelaFind MELA Sciences (MELA) is in the early stage of rolling out MelaFind, an FDA approved handheld optical scanning device for assisting dermatologists in identifying skin lesions that may be melanoma. The device is placed over a skin lesion and uses imaging technology in which light of ten specific wavelengths is focused on the lesion […]

InSite Vision: Upcoming Results on the DOUBle Trial May Not Be as Binary as I Have Been Thinking

I met with the CEO, Tim Ruane, and CFO, Lou Drapeau, of InSite Vision (INSV.OB) in early January during my trip to the JP Morgan conference in San Francisco. I have written an extensive introductory report and follow-up reports on my website. I would refer investors to those reports for a more in-depth analysis of […]

Trius: Why Last Friday’s Equity Offering is good for the Stock (TSRX, $4.90)

Investment Opinion Trius (TSRX) completed an equity offering on Friday January 19 in which it sold 6.3 million shares at $4.465. I assume that the Green Shoe of 945,000 shares will be exercised and, if so, net proceeds to Trius will be $31.9 million. I calculate that the number of shares outstanding at the end […]

Transcept: Purdue Fires Big Marketing Guns and FDA Issues Insomnia Drug Guidelines That Help Intermezzo (TSPT, $5.72)

Investment Opinion The launch of Intermezzo has been disappointing to investors thus far. Now, Transcept’s (TSPT) marketing partner, Purdue Pharmaceuticals, is beginning a new phase of the launch with a direct to consumer advertising campaign and is employing for the first time its 500+ pain specialist sales force, the crown jewel of the company. The […]

This Could Be the Coming Out Year for Inovio (INO, $0.72)

I had the opportunity to meet with some of Inovio’s (INO) management team- Joseph Kim (Chief Executive Officer), Peter Kies (Chief Financial Officer) and Bernie Hertel (Senior Director of Corporate Communications)- in San Francisco in early January. I have been following and periodically calling on the company for over two years. I have come to […]

Northwest Biotherapeutics: Transformed from an Ugly Duckling Bulletin Board Company to a Promising NASDAQ Company (NWBO, $3.20)

Investment Update In my July 19, 2012 report Northwest Biotherapeutics’ DCVax Cancer Vaccines May Be a Game Changer in Cancer Therapy, I recommended purchase of Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO). I felt that the company represented an asymmetric investment opportunity for investors willing to risk losing much or even all of their investment for a chance to […]