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My Current Thoughts on 13 Stocks I Cover and the Investment Outlook for the Market

Purpose of This Report This report is being written at a time of panic in the market in which a sharp drop in the stock market indices has set off a much steeper plunge in the stock prices of emerging biotechnology companies which are the focus of SmithOnStocks. In this volatile and depressing environment, there [...]

Why Biotechnology Investing is So Difficult: Cytokinetics is a Case Study (free article)

Overview I just finished publishing a detailed article for subscribers to my website detailing my view that Cytokinetics offers asymmetric upside potential. I thought that non-subscribers might be interested in a part of that article that went through the trials and tribulations of my long standing buy (two and one half years) on the stock. It [...]

Cytokinetics: An Update on Potential (Highly Probable) Phase 3 Trial of Omecamtiv Mecarbil in Heart Failure (CYTK, Buy, $11.29)

Purpose of this Report I listened carefully to CEO Robert Blum speaking at the Piper Jaffrey conference on December 1. This note is based on his comments on the probable (almost certain) upcoming phase 3 trial of omecamtiv mecarbil. I have built on his remarks to try to put this in an investment perspective. Will [...]

Cytokinetics: I Predict Amgen Will Proceed to Phase 3 Trials with Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, Buy, $10.82)

Investment Thesis I continue with my long standing buy recommendation on the stock. I think a Buy at this level is justified by the prospects for omecamtiv mecarbil alone even if tirasemtiv were to fail in its phase 3 trial in ALS and CK-107 is not progressed in spinal muscular atrophy. Of course, I think [...]

Cytokinetics: Positive Topline Results of Omecamtiv in COSMIC-HF Trial Are a Major Positive (CYTK, Buy, $7.04)

There is a very high probability that omecamtiv will now be taken into phase 3 development. I await Amgen’s decision on this. I view omecamtiv as one of the most exciting drugs in development in cardiology. If the efficacy and safety profile suggested by phase 1 and 2 trials is borne out in bigger and [...]

Cytokinetics: Comments on Sharp Price Decline After 2Q, 2015 Conference Call (CYTK, Buy, $6.28)

Key Points The reasons for my buy recommendation on CYTK as detailed in previous reports remain the same. There was nothing on the 2Q, 2015 call that I had not known for some time. The sharp rise in the stock before and the sharp fall after the 2Q call is consistent with my hypothesis that [...]

Cytokinetics: Phase 3 Trial of Tirasemtiv Has Begun (CYTK, Buy, $7.17)

Cytokinetics announced on July 14, 2015 the start of the phase 3 trial of tirasemtiv in ALS-VITALITY-ALS (Ventilatory Investigation of Tirasemtiv and Assessment of Longitudinal Indices after Treatment for a Year in ALS). I would expect rapid enrollment in this trial as many of the centers participating in this study also participated in the phase [...]

Cytokinetics: Takeaways from Recent R&D Day and Reiteration of Buy (CYTK, $6.14, Buy)

Investment Overview I find the recent stock weakness in Cytokinetics perplexing. The Company has a market value of about $300 million which seems extremely low relative to other biotechnology companies. Generally companies with meaningful drugs in phase 3 development have market capitalizations of $500 million or more. Cytokinetics has two very meaningful drugs: tirasemtiv will [...]

Cytokinetics: Update and Reiteration of My Buy Recommendation (CYTK, $5.54, Buy)

Investment Thesis in Brief By the end of 2015, Cytokinetics (CYTK) will have tirasemtiv in a phase 3 trial in ALS and might also have omecamtiv in a phase 3 trial in heart failure. There is no financing overhang as the Company has $118 million of cash which can last for over 20 months. This [...]

Comments on Antares, Agenus, Cytokinetics, Discovery Laboratories and ZS Pharma

SmithOnStocks Mailbox April 28, 2015 A Quick Take on Recent Events If you have a question for the mailbox, contact me. Purpose of this Note I have written extensively on Antares, Agenus, Cytokinetics and Discovery Laboratories. I have Buys on Antares, Agenus and Cytokinetics. I have a Hold on Discovery (what a troubled history), but [...]