Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Introduction If you read my note of yesterday, there can be no question that Amgen views omecamtiv mecarbil as a major breakthrough for the treatment of congestive heart failure if phase 2 data can be replicated in phase 3 trials. That note was based on a presentation by Cytokinetics at the Cowen conference on Monday […]

Introduction The Cowen conference in Boston is going on this week. I consider Cowen to have the best and broadest coverage of biotechnology on Wall Street. I am listening to webcasts from numerous companies this week at their annual healthcare conference. Cytokinetics presented on Monday March 8 and then Amgen held a dinner for investors […]

Summary I attended the BIO CEO conference in New York City on February 8 and 9. I am writing a series of blogs that give highlights and impressions from company presentations that I attended. These range from companies that I am deeply involved in to companies that I have seen for the first time. This […]

Purpose of this Report I listened carefully to CEO Robert Blum speaking at the Piper Jaffrey conference on December 1. This note is based on his comments on the probable (almost certain) upcoming phase 3 trial of omecamtiv mecarbil. I have built on his remarks to try to put this in an investment perspective. Will […]

Investment Thesis I continue with my long standing buy recommendation on the stock. I think a Buy at this level is justified by the prospects for omecamtiv mecarbil alone even if tirasemtiv were to fail in its phase 3 trial in ALS and CK-107 is not progressed in spinal muscular atrophy. Of course, I think […]

There is a very high probability that omecamtiv will now be taken into phase 3 development. I await Amgen’s decision on this. I view omecamtiv as one of the most exciting drugs in development in cardiology. If the efficacy and safety profile suggested by phase 1 and 2 trials is borne out in bigger and […]

Key Points The reasons for my buy recommendation on CYTK as detailed in previous reports remain the same. There was nothing on the 2Q, 2015 call that I had not known for some time. The sharp rise in the stock before and the sharp fall after the 2Q call is consistent with my hypothesis that […]

Cytokinetics announced on July 14, 2015 the start of the phase 3 trial of tirasemtiv in ALS-VITALITY-ALS (Ventilatory Investigation of Tirasemtiv and Assessment of Longitudinal Indices after Treatment for a Year in ALS). I would expect rapid enrollment in this trial as many of the centers participating in this study also participated in the phase […]

Introduction Management has recently provided details of the upcoming phase 3 trial of tirasemtiv in the treatment of ALS; this trial is named VITALITY- ALS which is short for Ventilator Investigation of Tirasemtiv and Assessment of Longitudinal Indices after Treatment for a Year in ALS This trial will begin any day now and could report […]

Investment Overview I find the recent stock weakness in Cytokinetics perplexing. The Company has a market value of about $300 million which seems extremely low relative to other biotechnology companies. Generally companies with meaningful drugs in phase 3 development have market capitalizations of $500 million or more. Cytokinetics has two very meaningful drugs: tirasemtiv will […]