Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Summary I attended the BIO CEO conference in New York City on February 8 and 9. I am writing a series of blogs that give highlights and impressions from company presentations that I attended. These range from companies that I am deeply involved in to companies that I have seen for the first time. This […]

Overview I just finished publishing a detailed article for subscribers to my website detailing my view that Cytokinetics offers asymmetric upside potential. I thought that non-subscribers might be interested in a part of that article that went through the trials and tribulations of my long standing buy (two and one half years) on the stock. It […]

Purpose of this Report I listened carefully to CEO Robert Blum speaking at the Piper Jaffrey conference on December 1. This note is based on his comments on the probable (almost certain) upcoming phase 3 trial of omecamtiv mecarbil. I have built on his remarks to try to put this in an investment perspective. Will […]

Investment Thesis I continue with my long standing buy recommendation on the stock. I think a Buy at this level is justified by the prospects for omecamtiv mecarbil alone even if tirasemtiv were to fail in its phase 3 trial in ALS and CK-107 is not progressed in spinal muscular atrophy. Of course, I think […]

Investment Thinking Cytokinetics could announce the decision on whether it will advance tirasemtiv into a pivotal phase 3 trial by the end of 2014. In my opinion, management will only make this decision if the FDA agrees under a Special Protocol Assessment that a new primary endpoint of slow vital capacity, SVC, can be used. […]

Cytokinetics announced that tirasemtiv failed to reach the primary endpoint in the phase 2b BENEFIT-ALS trial in ALS. The mean change from baseline in the ALS Functional Rating Scale in its revised form (ALSFRS-R) for tirasemtiv was -2.98 as compared to -2.40 in the placebo group indicating no difference from placebo. The Company said that there […]

Key Takeaways From 3Q, 2013 Conference Call The BENEFIT-ALS trial of tirasemtiv has nearly completed enrollment and Cytokinetics (CYTK) believes that topline data will be reported as early as the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) Meeting in Philadelphia in April 2014. The most likely path forward in the event that the data is positive is […]

Investment Overview In my last note, I wrote that I thought the ATOMIC-AHF, phase IIb trial of the intravenous dosage form omecamtiv mecarbil in acute heart failure might not reach its primary endpoint of dyspnea (shortness of breath), but that this would not deter Amgen from beginning phase III trials in 2H, 2014. Wall Street […]