Tag archive for ‘Dendreon Corporation’
How Effective is Provenge (DNDN, $12.15)
A criticism that is heard over and over from lay people is that Provenge provides only marginal benefit with an increase of 4.5 months median overall survival. This view is in direct opposition to the views of the FDA and expert oncology community on the importance of improvements of this magnitude in mean overall survival. […]
Previewing Dendreon’s 2Q Results to be Reported on August 3: It’s All About Provenge (DNDN, $36.13)
Dendreon is scheduled to report second quarter results on August 3 and will hold a conference call at 4:30 to discuss results. The overwhelming factor to watch for in the second quarter is the level of Provenge sales. Based on management guidance, Wall Street is looking for about $55 to $65 million of sales in […]
Provenge Receives Final CMS Reimbursement Approval (DNDN, $41.40)
CMS Approval Removes Investor Concern CMS issued its final national coverage decision on Provenge yesterday and confirmed the preliminary decision that specifically states that treatment with Provenge is reasonable and necessary. This assures provider reimbursement for Medicare beneficiaries when Provenge is used on-label to treat asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic castrate resistant prostate cancer patients. This […]
Preview of 1Q, 2011 (DNDN, $41.78)
Dendreon will be hosting its first quarter conference call on May 2, 2011 at 4:30 EST. I anticipate that Provenge sales in the 1Q, 2011 will be about $28 million, which is in line with Street expectations. The key factors to listen for on the call will be: (1) whether the company reaffirms its […]
CMS May Issue Provenge Reimbursement Decision on March 31 (DNDN, $32.92)
CMS may issue on March 31, its draft guidance for the national coverage analysis of Provenge for use in asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic hormone resistant prostate cancer; Along with most investors, I expect that the guidance will recommend coverage of Provenge for patients as described in the label. It is my belief that the primary […]
Highlights of 1Q, 2011 (DNDN, $42.81)
Summary and Stock Opinion The 1Q sales of Provenge were exactly in line with my estimate of $28 million. There was nothing on the call that would cause me to change my sales estimates of $60 million in 2Q, $99 million in 3Q and $188 million in 4Q which would result in 2011 sales of […]
Manufacturing and Logistics Issues (DNDN, $32.57)
Dendreon intends to increase manufactruing capacity in 2011 to ten times the level of December 31, 2010. This should be able to support sales of $1.2 billion or more. Overview Provenge was approved in the US on April 29, 2010. It recorded sales of $2.7 million in 2Q, 2010; $20.2 million in 3Q and […]
Initiating Coverage With A Buy (DNDN, $34.98)
I am recommending puchase of Dendreon. The investment thesis is almost entirely dependent on the success of Provenge. Summary and Overview Dendreon began the marketing of Provenge, its cancer vaccine for prostate cancer in May of 2010. Enthusiasm following approval drove the price of Dendreon to $56 on May 3, 2010. Subsequently, concerns arose […]
Provenge’s European Opportunity (DNDN, $33.59)
The European Union represents a large pool of hormone resistant prostate cancer patients and could be a commercial opportunity for Provenge as large as that in the US. The treatment paradigms in the US and EU are similar. It is estimated that there are 1.5 to 2.0 times as many patients in the EU as […]
Interview with Two Key Opinion Leaders In Prostate Cancer About Provenge (DNDN, $35.89)
I spoke with two key opinion prostate cancer opinion leaders about their views on the potential for Dendreon’s Provenge. Investment Issues for Dendreon’s Provenge After some initial enthusiasm that drove the price of Dendreon to $56 on May 3, 2010, investor uncertainty has caused the stock to settle back into the mid to high […]