Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

What SmithOnStocks Is All About It is traditional at the start of the year to go over stock picks for the coming year. It also is the time of the annual biotech “love in” in San Francisco, which I recently attended and that attracts some 30,000 biotech executives, analysts, venture capitalists and investors. I estimate […]

Cytokinetics has been on a tear this year. Is started the year at $6.72 and closed yesterday (January 10) at $9.58, this is a 43% increase in just over a week. So what is going on? I checked in with management and they could point to no recent announcement or event that would cause such […]

Key Takeaways From 3Q, 2013 Conference Call The BENEFIT-ALS trial of tirasemtiv has nearly completed enrollment and Cytokinetics (CYTK) believes that topline data will be reported as early as the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) Meeting in Philadelphia in April 2014. The most likely path forward in the event that the data is positive is […]

Investment Background Cytokinetics and Amgen first presented data from the ATOMIC HF trial at the European Society of Cardiology Congress (ESC) on September 2, 2013. This was a 48 hour dose ranging study in patients who were hospitalized with heart failure. The objective of the study was to determine pharmacokinetic (describes how the body affects […]

Introduction Cytokinetics issued a press release on the results of the phase II trial of ATOMIC-AHF and then held a conference call on September 3. Before the results were discussed in the conference call, news wires reported that the trial had missed its primary endpoint and this caused an immediate sharp sell-off in the stock. […]

Investment Overview In my last note, I wrote that I thought the ATOMIC-AHF, phase IIb trial of the intravenous dosage form omecamtiv mecarbil in acute heart failure might not reach its primary endpoint of dyspnea (shortness of breath), but that this would not deter Amgen from beginning phase III trials in 2H, 2014. Wall Street […]

Introduction This report is an update on my thinking on Cytokinetics. It should be read in conjunction with earlier reports, especially my initiation report of March 15, Cytokinetics: Critical Phase IIB Data is Upcoming in 2013 for Omecamtiv Mecarbil and Tirasemtiv (CYTK, $6.30). In that report, I first recommended purchase and I continue to do […]

Cytokinetics (CYTK) has completed its second meaningful deal in two weeks. Today they announced a deal with Astellas (ALPMY) and on June 12, they announced a deal that allows Amgen to develop omecamtiv mecarbil in Japan. Today’s deal brings in $16 million as an upfront milestone and the Amgen (AMGN) deal brought in $15 million […]

Cytokinetics (CYTK) has announced an expansion of the partnering agreement with Amgen (AMGN) for omecamtiv mecarbil, the Company’s lead product which is being developed for congestive heart failure. In the original agreement, rights to omecamtiv in Japan were not included. The expansion gives Amgen rights in Japan as well. Cytokinetics will receive $25 million which […]

Overview and Investment Importance Those who read my initiation report on Cytokinetics (CYTK) understand that the importance of successfully conducting a phase III trial for omecamtiv mecarbil and then commercializing the product cannot be overstated. It could bring in as much as $300 million of pre-commercialization milestones from its partner Amgen by mid-2017. In addition, […]