Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Introduction to This Thought Piece Emerging biotechnology stocks obviously are very hard to value on an absolute basis because they usually have no or minimal sales and huge operating losses. Many Wall Street analysts arrive at price targets by making long term sales and earnings projections; risk adjusting the estimates through predicting probability of successful […]

SmithOnStocks Mailbox April 28, 2015 A Quick Take on Recent Events If you have a question for the mailbox, contact me. Purpose of this Note I have written extensively on Antares, Agenus, Cytokinetics and Discovery Laboratories. I have Buys on Antares, Agenus and Cytokinetics. I have a Hold on Discovery (what a troubled history), but […]

ZS Pharma Investment Thesis The Hyperkalemia Market Opportunity is Huge; There Are No Good Current Drugs The most important piece of the investment thesis for ZS Pharma is the sheer size of the opportunity for treating hyperkalemia. In my recent report, Effective Treatment of Hyperkalemia Promises to be a Multi-billion Opportunity, I provided a framework for […]

Overview Subsequent to my posting of my recent update on Antares, I have seen that Teva has made an offer to buy Mylan; Mylan, of course, markets EpiPen. My first reaction to this news was alarm suggesting that Teva would abandon the AB rated product and focus on the branded product. However, this is highly […]

Investment Thesis I continue with my long standing recommendation on Antares. Last year was a disappointing year for the stock, but the basic reasons for my positive view of the Company remain largely intact. I discussed this is detail in my report of November 23, 2004 called Antares: 2015 Could Be the Breakout Year for […]

Investment Thesis During the conference call on March 16, 2015 discussing 4Q, 2014 results, management announced that it had decided to find some type of partnership or licensing deal that will take over all of the financial and commercialization support for Surfaxin. It says that it is in advanced stages of discussions, but if nothing […]

Introduction I have included an abstract on DCVax Direct and another on DCVax-L that will be presented in poster presentations at the American Association of Cancer Research (AACR) meeting during April 18 to April 22. I have included the entire abstract for your review DCVax Direct Poster This poster dealt with the phase 1 trial […]

Overview This report updates my investment thinking on Celldex and also provides a brief overview of its two late stage products. Rentega (rindopepimut) is a peptide cancer vaccine in late stage development in both recurrent glioblastoma (rGBM) and newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme ndGBM) brain tumors that express the EGFRvIII mutation; it could be approved in […]

The $40 million will fund the Company through the end of 2015. CEO Linda Powers indicates that this is the cornerstone of the Company’s financing plans. I am speculating that there will be as much as $60 million more capital raised this year that will take the Company well past topline DCVax-L data in 2016. […]

Introduction Adam Feuerstein just published a blog that attacks the results and conclusions drawn from the paper summarizing results from the 51 patient information arm of the DCVax-L phase 3 trial. This marks the 22nd consecutive negative blog by Feuerstein on Northwest. I am growing tired of rebutting his articles, but as long as he […]