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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Archive for October, 2014

Weakness in Neuralstem Caused by Seeking Alpha Article Presents a Buying Opportunity (CUR, $2.69, Buy)

This is an updated version of a blog that was published on October 20th. A Seeking Alpha article on results from a phase 2a trial of GM 640, a drug being developed by the privately held company Genervon, led to an unwarranted sharp decline in the price of Neuralstem. SA failed to understand that this […]

Chimerix: A Review of Recent Analyst Day Presentations with a Focus on Adenovirus and Ebola (CMRX, $31.31, Neutral)

The fundamental outlook for Chimerix is very attractive in my opinion. My model suggests that sales of its lead drug brincidofovir could reach $800 million in 2021 based only on use in allogeneic  hematopoietic stem cell and other severely immunocompromised patients. It could have significant uses beyond this. Topline data on the phase 3 SUPPRESS […]

Cytokinetics Is Planning for a Phase 3 Trial in 2015 for Tirasemtiv in ALS (CYTK, $3.26, Buy)

Cytokinetics (CYTK) has announced   that it is planning a phase 3 trial for tirasemtiv using sustained vital capacity-SVC- as a primary endpoint. The new trial could begin in 2015, but the gating factor almost certainly will be whether the FDA agrees to a Special Protocol Assessment- SPA- in which the agency agrees that SVC […]

Discovery Laboratories Has Formed an Important Collaboration with Battelle to Develop Aerosurf (DSCO, Buy, $1.69)

This agreement partners Discovery with a world class medical device developer and meaningfully de-risks development of Aerosurf. It also gives meaningful validation from a sophisticated third party of the revolutionary potential for Aerosurf in treating respiratory distress syndrome. The terms of the collaboration reduces capital needs for Discovery and Battelle only wins if Aerosurf is […]

Trying To Find Those Technologies and Emerging Biotechnology Companies That Could Be The Big Winners of Coming Decades

Purpose of Report I attended the Rodman conference on September 9th and 10th and listened to 29 company presentations and then attended the BioCentury Conference on September 26 where I listened to another 10. I go to as many conferences as possible to get updates on companies that I follow and to learn about […]