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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Archive for September, 2013

Cytokinetics: Presentation at Heart Failure Society Suggests Myocardial Infarctions Are Not Likely Associated with Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, $7.61)

Investment Background Cytokinetics and Amgen first presented data from the ATOMIC HF trial at the European Society of Cardiology Congress (ESC) on September 2, 2013. This was a 48 hour dose ranging study in patients who were hospitalized with heart failure. The objective of the study was to determine pharmacokinetic (describes how the body affects […]

Agenus: Rebuttal To Attack By Adam Feuerstein on the Company (AGEN, Buy, $2.85)

Report Overview Adam Feuerstein launched a withering attack on Agenus (AGEN) and me in his column. The gist of the article is that Agenus is misrepresenting data pertaining to the use of Prophage in glioblastoma in ways that overstate Prophage’s efficacy and I am naively buying into this. It was a very short note on […]

Neuralstem: Evidence Increasingly Suggests its Neural Stem Cells are Effective in ALS (CUR, $2.57)

Thoughts on the Stock Price I have been recommending Neuralstem (CUR) since my initiation report of November 5, 2012 at a price of $0.92. The stock has appreciated significantly over the past year and has been extremely strong in the month of September as the price increased from $1.60 on the 4th to a close of $2.68 […]

Agenus: Thoughts on Phase II Results for Prophage in Glioblastoma (AGEN, $2.91)

Reason for This Report Agenus (AGEN) just issued an update on a phase II trial of Prophage G-100 combined with current standard of care in newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients that showed median overall survival (OS) of 23.3 months. There was no control group in the study but data from recent trials suggests that OS with […]

NovaBay: Phase II Topline Results for Auriclosene in UCBE are Very Encouraging (NBY, $1.52)

Investment Overview I first recommended NovaBay (NBY) as a small company that fit my asymmetric investment strategy in an initiation report on October 30, 2012 at a price of $1.32. The basis of my recommendation was that in 2013 the company would be reporting phase II b data on trials of its lead drug auriclosene […]

NovaBay: Data from Phase II Trial of Auriclosene in Urinary Catheter Blockage and Encrustation is Imminent (NBY, $1.40)

Company Overview and Purpose of the Report NovaBay (NBY) will be reporting the results of three Phase II clinical trials involving its first in class “non-antibiotic”, anti-microbial agent auriclosene (NVC-422) over the next three quarters. The mechanism of action and previously conducted phase I and II trials indicate that it has broad spectrum activity against […]

Agenus: Assessing Stock Prospects in the Aftermath of MAGE A-3 Cancer Vaccine Missing Primary Endpoint in Melanoma (AGEN, $2.81)

Investment Thesis Glaxo (GSK) announced today that the trial of their MAGE A-3 cancer vaccine in the DERMA trial in stage IIIb/c melanoma did not meet its endpoint of progression free survival. Agenus’ QS-21 adjuvant is a component of this vaccine and Agenus would be entitled to a royalty upon commercialization. Agenus’ stock traded down […]

Cytokinetics: Clinical Investigators’ Take on ATOMIC-AHF Trial Results (CYTK, $8.01)

Introduction Cytokinetics issued a press release on the results of the phase II trial of ATOMIC-AHF and then held a conference call on September 3. Before the results were discussed in the conference call, news wires reported that the trial had missed its primary endpoint and this caused an immediate sharp sell-off in the stock. […]