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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Archive for August, 2013

Cytokinetics: Previewing the Release of Data from the ATOMIC-AHF Trial of Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, $9.95)

Investment Overview In my last note, I wrote that I thought the ATOMIC-AHF, phase IIb trial of the intravenous dosage form omecamtiv mecarbil in acute heart failure might not reach its primary endpoint of dyspnea (shortness of breath), but that this would not deter Amgen from beginning phase III trials in 2H, 2014. Wall Street […]

Agenus: Upcoming Clinical Trial Results for the MAGE A-3 Cancer Vaccine Will Have a Major Impact on the Stock (AGEN, $3.42)

Investment Overview I initiated coverage of Agenus (AGEN) with a Buy on July 17, 2013 based on the pending release of clinical trial data on five development programs over the next three quarters. Each of these events, some more than others, has the potential to boost the stock at the time the data is reported. […]

Antares: An In-Depth Look at Otrexup and Re-iteration of My Buy Recommendation (ATRS: $4.45) (Paid Subscribers Only)

Investment Overview and Thesis Antares has carved out an interesting niche in the pharmaceutical industry through building a drug delivery business based on sophisticated injection technologies. Large pharmaceutical companies have always been “oral dosage centric” in their development of dosage forms for their drugs. Their goal has almost always been to find a once a […]

Repligen: A Buy and Hold Stock: OPUS Promises to be a Dynamic New Product (RGEN; $9.87)

Report Summary In this report, I go through a detailed sales, earnings and cash flow projections for the period 2013 through 2019. I am projecting that sales of the core bioprocessing business will grow at 13% per annum in the 2013 to 2016 timeframe. The EPS picture is complicated because the expiration of the royalty […]

Cadence: Comments on Patent Office Re-examination of Key Cadence Patent

Cadence (CADX) announced that the US patent office has issued an initial action on the re-examination of one of two patents covering Ofirmev, the ‘222 patent on formulation. The PTO rejected certain claims in the patent while upholding others. However, all of the claims remain valid and in place until the PTO issues its final […]

Cytokinetics: A Preview of Key Upcoming Clinical Trial Results (CYTK, $10.17)

Introduction This report is an update on my thinking on Cytokinetics. It should be read in conjunction with earlier reports, especially my initiation report of March 15, Cytokinetics: Critical Phase IIB Data is Upcoming in 2013 for Omecamtiv Mecarbil and Tirasemtiv (CYTK, $6.30). In that report, I first recommended purchase and I continue to do […]

Cadence: Ofirmev Sales Are Extremely Strong; Ofirmev Patent Decision Could Come by Yearend (CADX, $6.80)

Investment Thesis Cadence (CADX) reported another strong quarter for Ofirmev and in my mind the only question about the launch is the magnitude of success. In this report, I go through arguments that suggest that Ofirmev sales in a conservative case could reach $350 million in 2018 and in an optimistic case could reach $730 […]

Trius: Will there be a Higher Bidder and what is the CVR Worth? (TSRX; $14.10)

What is the CVR Worth? I wanted to address some additional points in regard to the proposed acquisition of Trius (TSRX) by Cubist (CBST). In my earlier note of July 31, I had not yet analyzed the terms of the CVR which are that Trius shareholders will receive $1.00 for each share that they tender […]