Archive for May, 2011
Initiation Report (MDVN, $17.09)
I am initiating coverage of Medivation based on my interest in their new drug for prostate cancer MDV 3100, which could be a major advance in therapy. I need to see more clinical data that substantiates the results seen in early stage studies before I recommend the stock. Stock Opinion I am not inclined […]
Highlights of 1Q, 2011 (DNDN, $42.81)
Summary and Stock Opinion The 1Q sales of Provenge were exactly in line with my estimate of $28 million. There was nothing on the call that would cause me to change my sales estimates of $60 million in 2Q, $99 million in 3Q and $188 million in 4Q which would result in 2011 sales of […]
Manufacturing and Logistics Issues (DNDN, $32.57)
Dendreon intends to increase manufactruing capacity in 2011 to ten times the level of December 31, 2010. This should be able to support sales of $1.2 billion or more. Overview Provenge was approved in the US on April 29, 2010. It recorded sales of $2.7 million in 2Q, 2010; $20.2 million in 3Q and […]
Initiating Coverage With A Buy (DNDN, $34.98)
I am recommending puchase of Dendreon. The investment thesis is almost entirely dependent on the success of Provenge. Summary and Overview Dendreon began the marketing of Provenge, its cancer vaccine for prostate cancer in May of 2010. Enthusiasm following approval drove the price of Dendreon to $56 on May 3, 2010. Subsequently, concerns arose […]
Provenge’s European Opportunity (DNDN, $33.59)
The European Union represents a large pool of hormone resistant prostate cancer patients and could be a commercial opportunity for Provenge as large as that in the US. The treatment paradigms in the US and EU are similar. It is estimated that there are 1.5 to 2.0 times as many patients in the EU as […]
Interview with Two Key Opinion Leaders In Prostate Cancer About Provenge (DNDN, $35.89)
I spoke with two key opinion prostate cancer opinion leaders about their views on the potential for Dendreon’s Provenge. Investment Issues for Dendreon’s Provenge After some initial enthusiasm that drove the price of Dendreon to $56 on May 3, 2010, investor uncertainty has caused the stock to settle back into the mid to high […]
2011 Is The Crucial Year for Provenge and Dendreon (DNDN, $34.59)
Summary and Overview Dendreon began the marketing of Provenge, its cancer vaccine for prostate cancer in May of 2010. Enthusiasm following approval drove the price of Dendreon to $56 on May 3, 2010. Subsequently, concerns arose that caused the stock to settle back into the mid to high $30s. In this note we go through […]
Telaprevir Has Significant Therapeutic and Blockbuster Sales Potential for Hepatitis C (JNJ, $64.95)
The landscape for treating hepatitis C virus is on the verge of dramatic change due to the development of new classes of drugs offering significant improvements in efficacy, convenience and tolerability over the current standard of care which is pegylated alpha interferon combined with ribavirin. The first of the new drugs are protease inhibitors: Vertex/JNJ’s […]
Abiraterone is Significant Advance in Prostate Cancer Treatment (JNJ, $64.11)
I recently recommended purchase of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) in a report on April 24, 2010 called Johnson & Johnson Looks Promising on New Product Potential. The major factor driving the recommendation is my view that JNJ will be launching two drugs with blockbuster potential in mid-2011. One of these is abiraterone, the subject of […]
An Analysis of 4Q, 2010 and A Look Forward (BDSI, $3.41)
BioDelivery Sciences is making steady progress in advancing its pipeline and also has set the stage for a pickup in Onsolis sales. It is rare that such a small market capitalization company combines both a currently marketed product with a promising pipeline. I am interested in the stock, but am not yet prepared to go […]