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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Cytokinetics: Catalysts for 2021 (CYTK, $18.79)

Introduction

I have shut down the subscription service for SmithOnStocks and have refunded subscription fees for those subscribers who paid their…
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Cytokinetics: Approval of Merck’s Heart Failure Drug Vericiguat Increases My Confidence for Approval of Omecamtiv

The FDA approval of Merck’s new heart failure drug, vericiguat, has meaningful implications for whether it will approve omecamtiv. Vericiguat’s…
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Cytokinetics: A Deep Dive into the Potential for Omecamtiv (CYTK, Buy, $19.86)

Investment Overview

Cytokinetics has three highly valuable pipeline assets whose aggregate value in my view substantially exceeds its current market valuation…
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Cytokinetics: Is Omecamtiv Mecarbil Approvable? Yes! (CYTK, Buy, $15.59)

Key Points of the GALACIC-HF Trial

Cytokinetics declined sharply after it announced topline results in the huge 8,500 patient phase 3…
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Cytokinetics: There Still May Be Hope for Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, Buy, $16.54)

Investment Opinion

Data presented at the upcoming American Heart Association meeting on the phase 3 GALACTIC-HG trial on omecamtiv mecarbil could…
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Cytokinetics: Top Line Results for Omecamtiv in GALACTIC-HF Trial Are Perplexing (CYTK, $15.46)

Cytokinetics reported that the results of GALACTIC-HF show that treatment with omecamtiv mecarbil achieved the primary composite efficacy endpoint and…
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Cytokinetics: Proposed Acquisition Price for MyoKardia Suggests CYTK is Dramatically Undervalued (CYTK, Buy, $27.33)

Bristol-Myers Squibb has announced that it will acquire MyoKardia for $13.1 billion in cash and this has important implications for…
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Cytokinetics (CYTK, Buy, $20.97) Omecamtiv Nears the Finish Line; Topline Data Expected in 4Q, 2020 with Launch Possible in 2021

Overview

Cytokinetics was founded 22 years ago and has not deviated from its initial business model that is based on…
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Cytokinetics: Current Investment Thesis Is All About Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK. $13.26, Buy)

Investment Thesis is Almost Exclusively Driven by Prospects for Omecamtiv Mecarbil

Omecamtiv Mecarbil is a Potential Mega- Blockbuster

Omecamtiv mecarbil is one…
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Cytokinetics: Based on Data from Fortitude ALS Trial, Cytokinetics and Astellas Indicate They Will Undertake Phase 3 Trial of Reldesemtiv in ALS (CYTK, Buy, $9.30)

Key Points:

Trial missed achieving statistical significance on primary endpoint of slow vital capacity
Still, key opinion leaders when looking…
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Cytokinetics: A Focus on 2019 Stock Price Catalysts (CYTK, Buy, $5.82)

Investment
Thesis

Omecamtiv
is one of the Most Exciting Drugs in Development in all of Biopharma

The primary driver of the investment thesis on
Cytokinetics…
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Cytokinetics: Update based on 2Q, 2018 Conference Call (CYTK, Buy, $6.85)

Investment Thesis

Omecamtiv is the Essence of the Investment Thesis

I continue to believe that Cytokinetics is an attractive investment based…
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Cytokinetics: Update on Extensive Clinical Trials Being Conducted (CYTK, Buy, $9.45)

Investment Overview and Thesis

Cytokinetics has an extremely valuable asset in omecamtiv mecarbil, which it is developing in collaboration with Amgen;…
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Cytokinetics: VITALITY-ALS Trial Fails (CYTK, Buy, $8.00)

CYTK announced today that the VITALITY-ALS trial in ALS failed which is obviously a significant disappointment. The stock is trading…
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Cytokinetics: Even if Tirasemtiv Were to Fail in Vitality-ALS. There is Great Long term Stock Potential (CYTK, $14.25, Buy)

Critical VITALITY-ALS Data Is Imminent

During the 3Q conference call, Cytokinetics said that the still unknown results of the VITALITY-ALS trial of…
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Cytokinetics: Reiteration of My Long Standing Buy Recommendation Based on an Extraordinary Pipeline (CYTK, $12.90, Buy)

Investment Overview and Thesis

Investment Overview

Cytokinetics reported 2Q, 2017 sales and earnings results on Wednesday, August 2 but this was relatively…
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Cytokinetics: What Are the Implications for Tirasemtiv Following the Approval of Radicava (Edaravone) for ALS? (CYTK, Buy, $15.40)

Key Points:

The surprising and unconventional approval of Radicava (edaravone) shows how desperate the FDA is to expedite the approval…
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Cytokinetics: Comments on the Upside Move Today (CYTK, Buy, $12.90)

Cytokinetics is up $1.15 or 10% to $12.90 in a poor market environment. The only news is that the Company…
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Cytokinetics: Insights into Corporate Collaborations, Tirasemtiv, CK-107 and Hospitalization Caused by Heart Failure (CYTK, Buy, $11.25)

Introduction

I was just going though the most recently published slide deck of Cytokinetics and found some slides that I thought…
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Cytokinetics: A Look at the Clinical Trial Programs Underway (CYTK, Buy, $13.00)

The Investment Thesis Is Based on Three Drugs in Late Stage Development

In partnership with Amgen, Cytokinetics has advanced omecamtiv mecarbil…
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Cytokinetics: Estimating a Potential 2025 Price Target of $220 Based Only on the Potential for Tirasemtiv (CYTK, Buy, $13.00) and Ignoring Omecamtiv Mecarbil and CK-107

Key Points:

Cytokinetics is likely to report results from the phase 3 VITALITY-ALS trial in early December 2017. I believe…
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Cytokinetics: Estimating a Potential 2025 Price Target of $172 Based Only on the Potential for Omecamtiv Mecarbil and Ignoring Tirasemtiv and CK-107 (CYTK, Buy, $13.00)

Key Points:

Amgen and Cytokinetics have begun enrolling the phase 3 GALACTIC-HF trial of omecamtiv mecarbil in congestive heart failure…
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Cytokinetics: Discussion of Financing Deal with Royalty Partners (CYTK, Buy, $11)

Terms and Implications of This Deal

Cytokinetics announced that it had concluded a deal to sell a portion of the future…
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Cytokinetics: Results of COSMIC HF Published in The Lancet; Phase 3 GALACTIC HF Trial Has Started (CYTK, Buy, $12.00)

Key Points

Results from the COSMIC HF phase 2 trial of omecamtiv mecarbil support the hypothesis that it improves heart…
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Cytokinetics: My Relative Market Value Analysis Suggests that the Stock Should be Selling at More Than $20 (CYTK, Buy, $8.95)

Investment Thesis

Cytokinetics looks to me to be seriously undervalued when I contrast its market value (stock price multiplied by shares…
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Cytokinetics; Amgen and Servier Announce Decision to Move Omecamtiv Mecarbil into Phase 3 (CYTK, Buy, $12.07)

Amgen issued a press release today in which it announced that Servier had decided to exercise its option to commercialize omecamtiv…
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Cytokinetics: Tirasemtiv Completes Phase 3 Enrollment (CYTK, Buy, $11.89)

Cytokinetics has announced that the VITALITY-ALS trial of tirasemtiv has completed enrollment. The study includes three phases. The first is…
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Cytokinetics: Collaboration with Astellas is Expanded and Will Bring in $65 Million of Cash (CYTK, $10.45, Buy)

Overview of Expanded Collaboration

Cytokinetics and Astellas announced on July 27th that they had expanded their collaboration for the development of…
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Cytokinetics: Phase 2 Trial of CK-2127107 in COPD Begins (CYTK, $9.37, Buy)

Overview of COPD

Cytokinetics announced today that it is beginning a phase 2 trial of CK-2127107 in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease…
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Cytokinetics: Amgen’s R&D Chief Expresses Great Optimism About Omecamtiv Mecarbil for Treating Congestive Heart Failure (CYTK, Buy, $6.53)

Purpose of This Report

I have written frequently about omecamtiv mecarbil, Cytokinetics’ extremely promising new drug for congestive heart failure…
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Cytokinetics: Comments on the Patent Situation of Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, Buy, $6.40)

Introduction

If you read my note of yesterday, there can be no question that Amgen views omecamtiv mecarbil as a major…
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Cytokinetics: An Update Based on CEO Robert Blum’s Comments at BIO CEO Conference on February 8, 2016 (CYTK, Buy, $6.57)

Summary

I attended the BIO CEO conference in New York City on February 8 and 9. I am writing a series…
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Why Biotechnology Investing is So Difficult: Cytokinetics is a Case Study (free article)

Overview

I just finished publishing a detailed article for subscribers to my website detailing my view that Cytokinetics offers asymmetric upside potential.…
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Cytokinetics: An Update on Potential (Highly Probable) Phase 3 Trial of Omecamtiv Mecarbil in Heart Failure (CYTK, Buy, $11.29)

Purpose of this Report

I listened carefully to CEO Robert Blum speaking at the Piper Jaffrey conference on December 1. This…
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Cytokinetics: I Predict Amgen Will Proceed to Phase 3 Trials with Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, Buy, $10.82)

Investment Thesis

I continue with my long standing buy recommendation on the stock. I think a Buy at this level is…
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Cytokinetics: Positive Topline Results of Omecamtiv in COSMIC-HF Trial Are a Major Positive (CYTK, Buy, $7.04)

There is a very high probability that omecamtiv will now be taken into phase 3 development. I await Amgen’s decision…
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Cytokinetics: Comments on Sharp Price Decline After 2Q, 2015 Conference Call (CYTK, Buy, $6.28)

Key Points

The reasons for my buy recommendation on CYTK as detailed in previous reports remain the same. There was nothing…
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Cytokinetics: Phase 3 Trial of Tirasemtiv Has Begun (CYTK, Buy, $7.17)

Cytokinetics announced on July 14, 2015 the start of the phase 3 trial of tirasemtiv in ALS-VITALITY-ALS (Ventilatory Investigation of…
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Cytokinetics: Phase 3 Trial for Tirasemtiv About to Begin with Topline Results Possible in 2H, 2016; Successful Outcome Could Make the Stock a Homerun (CYTK, $6.35, Buy, For Paid Subscribers)

Introduction

Management has recently provided details of the upcoming phase 3 trial of tirasemtiv in the treatment of ALS; this trial…
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Cytokinetics: Takeaways from Recent R&D Day and Reiteration of Buy (CYTK, $6.14, Buy)

Investment Overview

I find the recent stock weakness in Cytokinetics perplexing. The Company has a market value of about $300 million…
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Cytokinetics: Update and Reiteration of My Buy Recommendation (CYTK, $5.54, Buy)

Investment Thesis in Brief
By the end of 2015, Cytokinetics (CYTK) will have tirasemtiv in a phase 3 trial in ALS…
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Comments on Antares, Agenus, Cytokinetics, Discovery Laboratories and ZS Pharma

SmithOnStocks Mailbox
April 28, 2015
A Quick Take on Recent Events
If you have a question for the mailbox, contact me.
Purpose of this…
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Cytokinetics: Updates on Tirasemtiv and Omecamtiv (CYTK, Buy, $7.77)

Investment Overview
I have listened to management presentations at recent brokerage conferences and have then followed up with questions. There are…
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Cytokinetics: Key Catalysts for 2015 Strongly Support My Buy Recommendation (CYTK, $7.85)

Catalysts for 2015
During the conference call on February 12, 2015 discussing 4Q, 2014 results Cytokinetics discussed key catalysts for 2015…
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Cytokinetics: Takeaways from January 5, 2014 Conference Call (CYTK, Buy, $7.82)

Cytokinetics held a conference call on January 5th in which they added some detail on the collaboration with Astellas on…
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Cytokinetics: With the Stock Up 63% in the Last Seven Trading Days, What Do We Do Now? (CYTK, $8.01, Buy)

The strength followed the announcement of a new collaboration agreement with Astellas on CYTK’s unique skeletal muscle activators program
This added…
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Cytokinetics (CYTK, Buy $5.52) New Collaboration with Astellas on CK-2127107 Greatly Improves Investment Outlook

This deal adds a third leg to the development pipeline at Cytokinetics along with omecamtiv for congestive heart failure and…
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Cytokinetics: An Update on Tirasemtiv and Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, Buy, $3.67)

Investment Thinking

Cytokinetics could announce the decision on whether it will advance tirasemtiv into a pivotal phase 3 trial by the…
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Cytokinetics Is Planning for a Phase 3 Trial in 2015 for Tirasemtiv in ALS (CYTK, $3.26, Buy)

Cytokinetics (CYTK) has announced   that it is planning a phase 3 trial for tirasemtiv using sustained vital capacity-SVC- as…
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Cytokinetics: More Thoughts on the Potential for a Phase 3 Trial of Tirasemtiv in ALS (CYTK, Buy, $4.20)

Investment Thesis

In listening carefully to Cytokinetics’ (CYTK) comments over the last three months, I am convinced that the Company will…
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Cytokinetics: I Think That the Company May Decide to Do A Phase 3 Trial with Tirasemtiv (CYTK, $4.70, Buy, For Subscribers Only)

Overview on Clinical Status of Tirasemtiv

I believe that Cytokinetics (CYTK) will decide to move tirasemtiv into phase 3 registration trials…
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Cytokinetics: There Yet May Be a Path Forward to Develop Tirasemtiv in ALS (CYTK, Buy, $4.49, Paid Subscribers)

Overview

Cytokinetics held a conference call on the results of the BENEFIT-ALS trial on the morning of April 30. The Company…
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Cytokinetics Announces that Tirasemtiv Phase 2b Trial in ALS Failed (CYTK, Buy, $5.01)

Cytokinetics announced that tirasemtiv failed to reach the primary endpoint in the phase 2b BENEFIT-ALS trial in ALS. The mean…
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Thoughts on the Market Correction in Biotechnology Stocks

This Has Been a Tough Correction

The recent sharp market correction and rotation out of growth stocks like biotechnology and technology…
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Cytokinetics: The Critical Phase 2b Results for Tirasemtiv Should be Released on April 29th (CYTK, $8.88, Buy, Paid Subscribers Only)

Phase 2b Data on Tirasemtiv will be Presented on April 29th

Cytokinetics has an extremely important binary event upcoming as the…
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SmithOnStocks Mailbox February 25, 2014

I have found that there are some very smart people out there who have interesting questions and perspectives concerning my…
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Cytokinetics: Institutional Investors Give BENEFIT-ALS Potential Results a Vote of Confidence (CYTK, $9.06)

Cytokinetics (CYTK) announced that it has completed an equity offering in which it issued 4.375 million shares at a price…
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Cytokinetics: An In-Depth Look at the Potential for Success of Tirasemtiv in the BENEFIT-ALS Trial in ALS Patients (CYTK, $9.50) (Subscribers Only)

Purpose of This Report

The biggest clinical trial event in all of biotechnology for 2014 could be the reporting of phase…
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The BIO CEO Conference: Highlights from the Meeting and New Investment Perspectives (Subscribers Only)

Back From BIO CEO Conference

I have returned from spending two days at the BIO CEO conference at the Waldorf Astoria…
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San Francisco Trip Is the Basis for a Preview of 2014 (Subscribers Only)

What SmithOnStocks Is All About
It is traditional at the start of the year to go over stock picks for the…
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Thoughts on the Price Surge of Cytokinetics (CYTK, $8.75)

Cytokinetics has been on a tear this year. Is started the year at $6.72 and closed yesterday (January 10) at…
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Cytokinetics: 2014 Will Bring Critical Data Readouts on Tirasemtiv and Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, $6.03)

Key Takeaways From 3Q, 2013 Conference Call
The BENEFIT-ALS trial of tirasemtiv has nearly completed enrollment and Cytokinetics (CYTK) believes that…
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Cytokinetics: Presentation at Heart Failure Society Suggests Myocardial Infarctions Are Not Likely Associated with Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, $7.61)

Investment Background
Cytokinetics and Amgen first presented data from the ATOMIC HF trial at the European Society of Cardiology Congress (ESC)…
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Cytokinetics: Clinical Investigators’ Take on ATOMIC-AHF Trial Results (CYTK, $8.01)

Introduction
Cytokinetics issued a press release on the results of the phase II trial of ATOMIC-AHF and then held a conference…
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Cytokinetics: Previewing the Release of Data from the ATOMIC-AHF Trial of Omecamtiv Mecarbil (CYTK, $9.95)

Investment Overview

In my last note, I wrote that I thought the ATOMIC-AHF, phase IIb trial of the intravenous dosage form…
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Cytokinetics: A Preview of Key Upcoming Clinical Trial Results (CYTK, $10.17)

Introduction
This report is an update on my thinking on Cytokinetics. It should be read in conjunction with earlier reports, especially…
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Cytokinetics: Another Positive Deal for Shareholders, This Time with Astellas (CYTK, $11.81)

Cytokinetics (CYTK) has completed its second meaningful deal in two weeks. Today they announced a deal with Astellas (ALPMY) and…
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Cytokinetics (CYTK, $1.40) Receives a Vote of Confidence from Amgen

Cytokinetics (CYTK) has announced an expansion of the partnering agreement with Amgen (AMGN) for omecamtiv mecarbil, the Company’s lead product…
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Cytokinetics: Key Issues for Beginning Phase III for Omecamtiv Mecarbil in Congestive Heart Failure (CYTK, $1.15)

Overview and Investment Importance
Those who read my initiation report on Cytokinetics (CYTK) understand that the importance of successfully conducting…
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Cytokinetics: Critical Phase IIB Data is Upcoming in 2013 for Omecamtiv Mecarbil and Tirasemtiv (CYTK, Buy. $6.30)

Key Investment Considerations
 

Cytokinetics Has Two Key Drugs in Phase IIb Development

Cytokinetics (CYTK) has been the pioneer in developing new drugs…
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