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Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting

Archive for January, 2012

Johnson & Johnson’s Turnaround Led by New Drug Products is Underway (JNJ, $65.15)

Investment Conclusion JNJ has gone through three very difficult years as EPS increased only slightly from $4.63 in 2009 to $5.00 in 2011. The most important challenge faced was the loss of patents on the major drugs, Risperdal, Topamax, Levaquin, Duragesic and Concerta which saw aggregate sales drop from $5.8 billion in 2009 to an […]

The Promise of the Antares Pipeline is the Basis of my Buy Recommendation (AIS, $2.40)

Investment Opinion The failure of the Libi-Gel trial rocked the stock of Antares (AIS) and caused it to drop from around $2.62 to $1.67 with a subsequent recovery to $2.40. I think that this reaction failed to recognize the broad potential of the Antares product line beyond Libi-Gel. In particular, I think that the market […]

Expanding on Clinical Trials of CPP-109 in Cocaine Addiction and Pre-Clinical Studies of CPP-115 (CPRX, $1.14)

Purpose of Report I recently initiated coverage of Catalyst Pharmaceutical Partners (CPRX). This report is a follow-on to that report which focuses on the clinical trials that have been conducted to date with CPP-109 (vigabatrin) in cocaine addiction. This provides perspective on the all-important ongoing US phase IIb trial. The company hopes to duplicate the […]

Many Investors Rate Ofirmev Launch a Failure-Not So Fast (CADX, $4.06)

Investment Opinion Many or most investors have written off the launch of Ofirmev as either disappointing or an outright failure. I think they are wrong. In its most recent company presentation, Cadence released some unusually detailed figures on the number of Ofirmev vials sold in each month of 2011. These show impressive sequential month over […]

Investors’ Concerns About the Intermezzo Launch Weighs on the Stock and Creates a Buying Opportunity

Investment View I believe that Transcept’s (TSPT) Intermezzo is an important new drug for insomnia and will be a commercial success. I am anticipating that Transcept’s marketing partner Purdue Pharmaceuticals will launch the product in mid-2012. There was a time when new product approvals and launches produced investor exuberance. Now they seem to be met […]

Now That Pharmasset and Achillion Have Received Takeover Bids; Is Achillion Next? (ACHN, $9.72)

Following the announcement that Gilead was proposing to acquire Pharmasset (VRUS), I postulated in a note written on November 11, 2011 that Inhibitex (INHX) and Achillion (ACHN) were the next possible targets as big pharma companies seek to put together HCV drug assets. On January 13, Bristol-Myers announced that it proposed to acquire Inhibitex. I […]

Investors’ Concern About Launch of Intermezzo Weighs on the Stock and Creates a Buying Opportunity (TSPT, $8.21)

Investment View I believe that Transcept’s (TSPT) Intermezzo is an important new drug for insomnia and will be a commercial success. I am anticipating that Transcept’s marketing partner Purdue Pharmaceuticals will launch the product in mid-2012. There was a time when new product approvals and launches produced investor exuberance. Now they seem to be met […]

Initiating Coverage Based on Interest in CPP-109 for Treating Cocaine Addiction (CPRX,$1.18)

Company Overview The US Department of Health and Human Services estimates that there are about 1 million Americans addicted to cocaine and another 300,000 addicted to methamphetamine. This compares to about 1.9 million Americans addicted to opioid analgesics. The largest selling drug for opioid addiction is Suboxone, which has current US sales of about $1.2 […]